MARCOS CABINET REVAMP & CORRUPTION IN GAMBLING; STRENGTHENING OF US-LED ALLIANCE SYSTEM VS CHINA

This public edition of CenPEG’s monthly political analysis focuses on the Marcos cabinet revamp and corruption in gambling; the latest poverty and hunger situation; and international relations centered on US-led alliance strengthening against China.

I. NATIONAL POLITICS

 

Marcos Cabinet revamp

Former Sen. Sonny Angara officially assumed the role of secretary of the Department of Education (DepEd) on July 2 replacing Vice President Sara Duterte who resigned earlier in the midst of strained relations between her family led by former President Rodrigo R. Duterte and the Marcoses. Angara will be challenged by the system-wide issues of lack of school facilities, demand for quality teaching, as well as no significant improvement from students’ performance under the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA).

Trade and Industry Secretary Alfredo Pascual also resigned from his post as he transitions back to the private sector. Pascual once served as president of the University of the Philippines (UP) and was a prominent election watcher.

Meanwhile, in its Year One Report entitled “Miseducation: The Failed System of Philippine Education”, the Second Congressional Commission on Education (EDCOM 2) released its findings during its first year of operation on January 23, 2024. The commission’s 40 recommendations included, among others: “find possible complementarities of the Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program (4Ps) and the Food Stamp Program of the Department of Social Welfare and Development”; on textbook procurement, for the Department of Education (DepEd) to look into the possibility of procuring books that are available on the market rather than engaging publishers to develop new ones; and to “prioritize the poorest of the poor” for the Tertiary Education Subsidy.

The commission found that between 2018 and 2022, the proportion of the grantees of the subsidy that come from DSWD’s Listahanan 2.0 and 4Ps has declined markedly, from 74 percent to 31 percent. EDCOM 2 also found that teachers continue to bear the burden of about 50 administrative and ancillary tasks, despite efforts to allow them to focus on teaching across many administrations.

Meantime, students in the Philippines remain among the world’s weakest in math, reading and science, new findings by the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) showed, with recent test scores showing no significant improvement from the country’s performance in 2018. Despite the education department’s firestorm of reforms and preparations following a dismal showing in PISA 2018, just less than a quarter of Filipino students who took the test in 2022 reached the minimum level of proficiency in all three subjects of math, reading and science, according to PISA results released this month. Similar to 2018, the latest PISA scores show the Philippines performed worse than the global average in all categories, with its placement in the country rankings moving up by just a few spots above countries that dropped ranks due to the pandemic’s impacts on student learning. Finally, reflecting the fundamental problems of our socio-economic, educational system is the country’s severe rates of malnutrition, stunting, and wasting among our preschool and K-12 pupils, ultimately rooted in the continuing poverty and inequality among the majority of Filipino families.

The Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) is a worldwide study by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in member and non-member nations aimed at evaluating educational systems by measuring 15-year-old school pupils' scholastic performance on mathematics, science, and reading. It was first performed in 2000 and then repeated every three years. It also seeks to provide comparable data with a view to enabling countries to improve their education policies and outcomes. It measures problem solving and cognition.

The latest results also come off the back of the Philippine education system’s slow climb out of the pandemic — a prolonged period of school closure that resulted in learning losses and a ballooning number of students who cannot read.

Mid-Term Elections, May 12, 2025

The Commission on Elections (Comelec) has released the timetable for the coming May 12, 2025 national, local, and Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) elections. Up for grabs are 18,000 posts. All 318 seats in the House of Representatives and 12 of the 24 seats in the Senate will be contested to form the 20th Congress of the Philippines. Local elections will also be held for the executive and legislative branches in every province, city, and municipality in the country. The first regular election to the Bangsamoro Parliament will be held within the general election after it was postponed in 2022.

Some 104 organizations have filed their respective manifestations to participate in the party-list race for the May 2025 midterm elections. In a statement, the Comelec provided the list of the Sectoral Parties, Sectoral Organizations, Political Parties, and Coalition of Political Parties that filed Manifestation of Intent (MIP) to participate in the Party-List System of Representation Elections for the next elections.

This will be the first general election to be held following the 2022 Maguindanao division plebiscite, which divided the province into Maguindanao del Norte and  Maguindanao del Sur. This election will also be the first automated election to be overseen by the South Korean firm Miru Systems after the Comelec disqualified Smartmatic from participating in future elections.

Last May, the Supreme Court directed the Comelec and the Joint Venture of Miru Systems Co. Ltd., Integrated Computer Systems, St. Timothy Construction Corporation and Centerpoint Solutions Technologies, Inc. to answer the petition and application for temporary restraining order and/or writ of preliminary injunction. The joint venture, led by South Korean firm Miru Systems Co. Ltd., secured the 2025 election contract worth PHP 17,988,878,226.55 (P17.9 billion) last February

The 2025 mid-term polls are a preview of the 2028 elections which include voting for a new president and vice-president. For decades, elections especially at the national level serve as a contest among the cointry’s decades-long ruling political dynasties. Today’s ruling elite includes the Dutertes, Marcos clan which includes the current House Speaker, Martin Romualdez; among many other names. The Senate, now led by Senate President Francis “Chiz” Escudero, usually serves as a stepping stone for future presidential aspirants.

POGO, Bamban Mayor

The high-profile issue during the period is that of Bamban, Tarlac Mayor Alice Guo who was suspended for her alleged links to the controversial Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators (POGO) in her town. Guo and her reported links to POGO sparked a flurry of investigations by the Senate and major government agencies.

Guo applied for a license to operate one of the POGOs, Hongsheng Gaming Technology Inc., which was raided in February 2023. In April 2024, authorities raided another POGO, Zun Yuan Technology Inc., located in the same compound as Hongsheng. One of the vehicles found inside Zun Yuan was registered under Guo's name.

Together with her parents Jian Zhong Guo and Wen Yi Lin, and her siblings Seimen, Wesley and Sheila, the Bamban mayor has since faced legal cases for contempt in the Senate. All were cited in contempt for refusing to attend hearings on their alleged involvement in crimes related to Philippine offshore gaming operators. Guo is facing other cases from the justice department, Department of Interior and Local Government (DILG), Court of Appeals, and Ombudsman. If convicted, Guo and the others accused could face life imprisonment and fines ranging from P2 million to P5 million.

The Ombudsman had earlier suspended the mayor end-May.

Offshore gambling was bound to happen. Established in 2016, POGO is the latest in the long history of gambling in the Philippines since at least the sixteenth century. Today various legal and illegal forms of gambling are found almost all over the country. Gambling is regulated by the government through the Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corporation (PAGCOR), a state-owned enterprise, since 1977. PAGCOR has also granted operating licenses and overseen the regulation of the growing online gambling sector serving offshore markets. Casino gambling and integrated resorts have become a key attraction as a tourist destination in the Philippines with more than 20 casinos in Metro Manila alone.

PAGCOR also operates and licenses gambling casinos, gaming clubs, and other similar recreational spaces. The Philippine Charity Sweepstakes Office (PCSO), on the other hand, organizes and conducts number games in the form of sweepstakes and lottery games. Privately-owned companies operating in the Philippine gambling resorts industry are Travelers International Hotel Group, Bloomberry Resorts Corp., Melco Crown, Belle Corporation, and Tiger Resorts.

Most of the companies which obtained POGO licenses were Chinese, and their businesses primarily catered to the ethnic Chinese community at-large. Gambling is illegal in China but the Chinese domestic consumer market for gambling in the Philippines is considerable. Some online gambling firms under PAGCOR are PhilWeb and DFNN.  DFNN, Inc. is a publicly listed company on the Philippine Stock Exchange Corporation (Ticker: DFNN) and is headed by Dr. Roberto F. de Ocampo, chairman emeritus. Also headed by Roberto de Ocampo, PhilWeb Corporation is a Philippine internet company involved in the gambling industry. It has operated the e-Games casino outlets. PhilWeb was founded by Roberto Ongpin and incorporated on August 20, 1969, as South Seas Oil and Mineral Exploration Co. Inc. South Seas Natural Resources' name was changed to PhilWeb.Com, Inc. in 2000 and later to PhilWeb Corporation.

The Chinese government had sought the Philippines’ cooperation then under President Duterte to ban all online gambling. The Beijing government said online gaming undermines Chinese financial institutions and spawns crime and social problems in China. But the Duterte government took no measure to restrain the online gaming industry because of the huge revenues it generated for the state. Then, after an August 2019 meeting between Duterte and Chinese President Xi Jinping, the Philippines increased its raids on illegal gambling operators.   Under Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., the Philippines took a harsher stance against online gambling; in September 2022, the justice department announced that it would shut down more than 100 online gambling operators and deport about 40,000 Chinese nationals working in the online gambling industry.

Just the same, the Philippines is rising steadily in the gaming industry, slowly establishing itself as one of the gambling capitals of Southeast Asia. It boasts more casinos than Macau, the Asian gambling giant which receives the majority of its income from gambling operations. (In Macau – a special administrative region of China - an amended law expands regulatory oversight over casinos, reflecting the central government’s wishes for tighter controls. Casino licenses are now valid only for 10 years, down from 20. Concessionaries now face an expanded list of duties, and will be subject to a Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau review every three years.) In Metro Manila alone, there are around 20 casinos. High-profile casinos include Solaire Resort and Casino and City of Dreams Manila. Calabarzon, located south of Manila, has five casinos while the Visayas and Mindanao have around 10 gambling districts. There are also plans to expand into areas like Cebu City and Cagayan de Oro City. Manuel Villar Jr., a former Senate President and the Philippines’ top tycoon is set to make his debut in the gaming industry with the opening of his first casino resort. The casino, part of a planned $1 billion investment, will start operations by mid-2025.

Much of the online gambling’s growth can be attributed to Manila's Entertainment City district, which consists of first-class casinos and hotels. These hotels and casinos are a huge source of tourism, which brings in additional revenues for the country. Online gambling, specifically Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators (POGOs) that cater to registered players outside the Philippines, have rapidly grown in number. The online gambling industry in 2017 was the second biggest demand driver for office space in the Philippines.

China and Philippine cooperation

In July, nearly 30 Chinese citizens engaged in offshore gambling in the Philippines were repatriated under bilateral cooperation between Beijing and Manila. Law enforcement authorities from China and the Philippines jointly conducted the repatriation of nearly 30 Chinese suspects back to China who were engaged in offshore gambling in the Philippines, the Chinese government announced. Earlier on February 22, more than 40 Chinese nationals engaged in offshore gambling in the Philippines were repatriated followed by 160 more Chinese nationals on May 14, 2024 who ere involved in offshore gambling in the Philippines. 

The Chinese government will continue to work closely with Philippine law enforcement departments to address related issues, and facilitate the orderly repatriation of individuals involved while protecting the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese nationals, it was announced.

Chinese law prohibits all forms of gambling. The Chinese government strictly cracks down on Chinese engaging in overseas gambling businesses including offshore gambling. Gambling businesses breed serious crimes and gravely undermines the interests of both Philippine and Chinese peoples, said Beijing.

Societal and cultural impact

Today in the Philippines, gambling is a major source of state revenues especially for a country that is paved with obstacles toward advancing growth and with billions of government money lost to systemic corruption every year. The abundance of casinos and gaming areas aided in the 17 percent growth of the gambling industry in 2015. Government’s gross gaming revenues hit record Php285.27 billion in 2023 up from 2015’s Php 130 billion, and from 2014's Php 111 billion. In the Philippine Congress, there is a bicameral consensus that big-time gambling is here to stay.

It remains to be seen whether the government crackdown on POGO and other types of “illegal” gambling has yielded positive results but most Filipinos agree that gambling cannot be uprooted.

Gambling has contributed to the Philippines' culture and identity ever since its introduction in the 16th century and rise in popularity in the country. Similar to other East and Southeast Asian countries, the Philippines has developed a reputation of a gambling society. This culture of gambling permeates various sectors of the Philippine society, most primarily the rural population. The social anthropologist, Per Binde, said “Gambling is a social, cultural and economic phenomenon, a remarkably flexible way of redistributing wealth, which is embedded in the socio‐cultural systems of societies.”

Reminiscent of promises by past presidents, Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. in his third State of the Nation Address (SONA) July 22, announced the complete ban on Philippine offshore gaming operators directing PAGCOR “to wind down and cease the operations of POGOs by the end of the year.” Marcos’s tall order immediately banning all Chinese-run online gambling firms - now estimated to number more than 400 across the Philippines and employing tens of thousands of Chinese and Southeast Asian nationals - came amid an ongoing government crackdown which was welcomed by the Chinese government.

For all Marcos Jr.’s “POGI point” (literally meaning handsome, “pogi” is a common idiom used in Filipino culture to describe someone’s act in order to win public support on a national issue), his public approval continues to fall.

Marcos approval down 2 and 5 points

Marcos Jr.'s nationwide approval and trust ratings went down by two and five percentage points, respectively, according to Pulse Asia's latest Ulat ng Bayan (national report) survey. Comparing data in March and June this year, Pulse Asia said Marcos' approval rating went down from 55 to 53, while his trust rating decreased from 57 to 52, respectively. (Note, however, that Marcos’s lower national approval rating from 55 to 53 percentage points is within the margin of error, meaning that statistically, there is virtually no change or that the difference is insignificant).

Conversely, the latest study also showed a two-point increase in the approval rating for Vice President Sara Duterte from 67 in March to 69 in June. Her trust rating in both months remained the same at 71 percent. (Duterte is a presumptive presidential candidate in 2028.)

Distrust is more pronounced toward the President and the House Speaker than the Senate President and the Vice-President, Pulse Asia also said.

In an earlier survey released in April 2024, Marcos Jr. had a 38 percent trust rating in Mindanao, down from 70 percent in December 2023.

Although still relatively stable, Marcos’s trust rating among Filipinos has dipped steadily over the past two years with the drop attributed to broken promises notably failure to lower rice prices and curb inflation, as well as unemployment, and other bread and butter issues. His trust rating echoes that of previous presidents whose terms kicked off with high public expectations but were trounced by poor performance and credibility erosion in the course of their presidencies. Public sentiments indicate not only basic economic concerns but also corruption and foreign policy albeit the latter occupies a slot at the bottom pit. 

 

II. NATIONAL ECONOMY

Economy is ravaged by poverty, hunger

Marcos’s poor economic performance in the first two years of his presidency is affirmed by the Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey in June 2024 where self-rated poverty soared under his administration – the highest since the presidency of Gloria M. Arroyo (2001-2010). The June SWS survey showed around 16 million of Filipino families (roughly 96M individuals) seeing themselves as poor. As of June, self-rated poverty among Filipino families has reached 58 percent, the highest level recorded since Arroyo where the highest self-rated poverty level was 66 percent, recorded in July 2001, May 2002, and September 2002.

Moreover, the government Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) registered similar findings - 17.5 million Filipinos are unable to afford basic needs. (Current Philippine population is 119,106,224.) In its Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES), the PSA found that poverty incidence among individuals decreased from 18.1 percent (19.99 million Filipinos) in 2021 to 15.5 percent (17.54 million Filipinos) in 2023. (If we go by the PSA official data, poverty incidence decreased from 18.1 percent in 2021 to 15.5 percent in 2023. This contrasts with the self-rated poverty findings of the SWS, which was at 58 percent in June 2024).

Poverty incidence is the proportion of Filipino families with incomes that are not sufficient to buy their minimum basic food and non-food needs as estimated by the poverty threshold. “At individual level, 15.5 percent Filipinos or about 17.54 million Filipinos were poor in 2023,” the PSA said.

The PSA figures were disputed by the independent economic think tank, IBON Foundation. The PSA report, the think tank noted in July, seems favorable at first glance with the incidence and magnitude of poverty reported to decline from the last reporting year in 2021. It is to be noted, however, that the country was still reeling from the pandemic lockdowns of the Duterte administration in 2021. The reopening of the economy is the main factor in the reported decline between the first semester of 2021 and the same period in 2023. But this isn’t a constructive action to reduce poverty and is just a passive lowering of restrictions on economic activity that were too harsh and too long to begin with, IBON stressed.

Hunger up under Marcos Jr.

Among those who rated themselves as poor, the SWS survey also revealed, 46 percent saw themselves as food-poor, 15 percent were food-borderline, and 39 percent did not consider themselves food-poor.

 

III. INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

EMERGING SECURITY ARCHITECTURE AGAINST CHINA
Under Marcos, Philippines deepens defense commitments

War preparations: This looms to be the goal of the US under its strategy of zapping China’s economic and maritime power. During this period, the US embarked on strengthening and expanding its military alliances with the Philippines, Japan, and other Asia-Pacific allies in sync with bolstering its military facilities in these countries. Alliances and armed personnel, in particular, are being built up with new constructions at EDSA sites in the Philippines.

Following up their regular visits in Manila, US State Secretary Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met their Philippine counterparts Enrique Manalo and Gilberto Teodoro, respectively, which resulted in major security and economic arrangements. The two US authorities committed to allocate $500 million in Foreign Military Financing (FMF) to the Philippines. The new allocation quintuples the $100 million the United States made available to the Philippines in late 2022. The FMF money, the US said, concludes the Philippines-Security Sector Assistance Roadmap which was finalized the day before the meeting. This roadmap lays out an agreed-upon list of priority capabilities that will guide Philippine procurement and US security assistance over the next 5 to 10 years. (For years, US budgeted military assistance has been used to purchase war arsenal from the US military industrial complex allowing trillion dollars of military funds to stay in the US. The money is shared among arms industries and US congress leaders. MIC companies are major contributors to election campaign expenditures.)

In addition to the $500 million in new FMF, the two sides also reaffirmed their commitment to upgrade agreed locations on Philippine military bases to which the US could be given access for rotational deployments and prepositioning of equipment under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA, 2014). Showing its high interest on EDCA, the US is to earmark $128 million for construction at seven of the nine existing sites (most likely the four newly announced last year - Lal-lo Airport, Camilo Osias Naval Base-San Vicente Naval Air Station, Camp Melchor F. dela Cruz in northern Luzon, and Balabac Island off the southern coast of Palawan - along with the older sites at Antonio Bautista Air Base in Palawan as well as Cesar Basa Air Base and Fort Magsaysay in Luzon).

A proposed General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) was not disclosed. Upon scrutiny, the agreement would facilitate more sharing of classified information, including from US surveillance platforms that could considerably improve Philippine maritime domain awareness over the South China Sea. Early in July, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Charles Brown, visited the Philippines and inspected some of the EDCA sites in what was reportedly an important step toward concluding the GSOMIA. During the 2+2, the four secretaries recommitted to finalizing the agreement by the end of 2024.

Earlier on July 28, Blinken and Austin visited Tokyo to similarly strengthen alliances and security partnerships in the Asia-Pacific with China as the main target. A key outcome from the Tokyo meeting was the reconstitution of the US Forces-Japan (USFJ) into a Joint Force Headquarters, under US Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM), to “assume primary responsibility for coordinating security activities in and around Japan.”

The reconstitution of USFJ, along with Japan’s establishment of the JJOC, represents the most important reforms to the structure of the US-Japan alliance in a generation enabling a much more robust planning and operational cooperation, from peacetime training and exercises to contingency response. The deepening military integration between the United States and its most capable ally in the region will reinforce deterrence and increase the credibility of the alliance’s combat power against China.

China is the pivotal target behind the modernization of the alliances. The United States, Japan, the Philippines, along with like-minded partners including Canada, France, India, New Zealand, South Korea, and the United Kingdom, increasingly view China’s “revisionist and coercive behavior” as a shared threat and are working together to meet the challenge. The joint statement released in Tokyo is strikingly direct about the challenge: “The People’s Republic of China (PRC)’s foreign policy seeks to reshape the international order for its own benefit at the expense of others. . . . The PRC employs political, economic, and military coercion of countries, companies, and civil society . . . to achieve these objectives.”

The Philippines, along with Japan and Taiwan province, is at the frontlines of this challenge. Not only is the US-Philippines alliance closer than ever, but the Philippines is also forging new security partnerships with the like-minded partners mentioned above. Recently, in early July, the Philippines concluded a Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA), allowing Japanese forces to enter the Philippines for training and exercises.

The simultaneous strengthening of US alliances in the Asia-Pacific - arguably for the first time since the end of the Cold War - along with the growing linkages between them signify a still-nascent but clear emerging security architecture organized around neutralizing China’s emerging power. The security architecture bolsters the arc of hundreds of military bases – including the EDCAs – that encircle and contain mainland China.

PH, Japan ink landmark Reciprocal Access Agreement

Indeed, on July 7, the Philippines and Japan signed a Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA), which aims to heighten defense cooperation between the two countries in the middle of the escalating tensions in the South China Sea (SCS). Witnessed by Marcos, Jr. the RAA was signed in Manila by Japanese Foreign Minister Kamikawa Yoko and Defense Minister Kihara Minoru; as well as Philippines Foreign Secretary Enrique Manalo and Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. 

The agreement would allow more Japanese forces to join annual military exercises involving the Philippines and the US, including the "Balikatan" exercises. The deal will also allow Japanese forces to provide “humanitarian assistance” to the Philippines when needed. The RAA needs the ratification of the Philippine Senate although Senate President Francis Escudero has expressed support for the defense agreement. 

The deal will also be scrutinized by the Senate foreign relations committee, headed by presidential sister Sen. Imee Marcos and the defense committee under Sen. Jinggoy Estrada.

In the East China Sea, Japan has its long-running territorial disputes with China involving the Diaoyu / Senkaku islands.

Bloc politics

China had earlier blasted the US-Japan-Philippines summit held in Washington, DC, on April 12 as a step closer to forming a mini-NATO in Asia Pacific. Reacting to the summit of US President Biden, Japanese Minister Fumio Kishida, and the Philippines’ Marcos the Beijing government termed the trilateral summit as an “anti-China gathering”. The summit vowed to enhance military ties to cope with "China's threats, ignoring its deeds that undermine regional peace and stability”. 

On this note, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning said that "China strongly opposes the practice of bloc politics by relevant countries. We firmly oppose any acts that stoke and drive up tensions and harm other countries' strategic security and interests. We are seriously against forming exclusive groupings in this region."

With the deepening of the trilateral military alliance between the US, Japan and the Philippines, and the aforementioned mini-multilateral framework among the US and its Asia-Pacific allies, Washington is moving one step closer to building a mini-Asia-Pacific NATO. Da said, "This is not only a serious provocation to China, but also a grave threat to regional peace and security."

"From the perspective of its strategic goals, the US does not want to see a united Asia. In the absence of its own strength, the Biden administration has tried to mobilize the sea power countries in Asia, such as Japan, South Korea and the Philippines, to contain the land power countries such as China and Russia, which serves its goal of being the dominant power in the sea power game in the Asia-Pacific region," a Beijing-based expert said.

Japan’s increasing engagements in Asia-Pacific particularly in the South China Sea accentuate a rebirth of militarism – suggestive of a pre-war build-up leading to its invasive East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere campaign that resulted in the occupation of Asian countries including China where 300,000 civilians became victims of genocide perpetrated by the Japanese Imperial Army in late 1937 in Nanjing. Until now, Japan has denied ever committing the well-documented massacre.

Examining closely major changes in Japan’s security strategy, in late 2022, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s government approved three policy documents - the National Security Strategy (NSS), the National Defense Strategy and the Defense Buildup Program - that propose a significant expansion of Japan’s military capabilities and a major increase in military spending over five years. The documents enable important modifications of the senshu boei (exclusively defense-oriented policy) that Japan has followed since 1946, not least allowing Japan to participate far more actively in collective self-defense with the United States and to substantially increase its ability to project force beyond its borders.

From a Japanese perspective, the documents ascribe the changes to a deteriorating international and regional security environment, as well as expectations from its longstanding ally the US and others that Japan should play a role “commensurate with its national strength” in protecting the “post-war international order” as unilaterally defined by the US. The truth, however, is that it is Japan together with its allies that is stoking tensions and provoking armed hostilities not only in Asia-Pacific but also elsewhere in the world.

Underlying Japan’s security documents is the perception that China is rapidly strengthening its military power, including expanding its nuclear arsenal and missile and naval capabilities. Echoing the US, the new NSS characterizes China as “the greatest strategic challenge in ensuring the peace and security of Japan and the peace and stability of the international community”.

Japan’s broader security policy

The Japanese-US alliance remains the linchpin of Japan’s national security strategy. In the six decades and more since the signing of the 1960 Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security, the alliance has evolved from one where Japan was completely dependent on US protection toward one where both allies are striving for greater security consultation through the bilateral Security Consultative Committee (‘2+2’) and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), and closer military integration in missile defense, cyber and space domains.

 More troubling, Japan has developed and promoted military ties with a number of countries in and beyond the Asia-Pacific region. It has strengthened security cooperation with Australia and India - both members of Quad alongside Japan and the USA - through high-level dialogues, joint military exercises, intelligence sharing and mutual access to each other’s military facilities. In December 2022, Japan announced a joint program with Italy and the United Kingdom to develop a new combat aircraft and signed a reciprocal access agreement with the UK in January 2023 and with Australia a year earlier.

Ironically, Japan’s new military strategy and the broader national security strategy will also need to address the complexity of dealing with the security–economy nexus. China is Japan’s largest trading partner and trade between the two is growing. (Today China’s and Japan’s economies are two of the biggest in the world, respectively the world's second and fourth-largest economies by nominal GDP and Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). In 2023, China-Japan trade grew to $266.4 billion, a rise of 12.5 percent on 2007, making China and Japan the top two-way trading partners. China was also the biggest destination for Japanese exports in 2023.

Australia, another defense ally of the Philippines, said it was ready to support Manila in a sea-territory skirmish with China. A Marine rotational force in northern Australia is ready to back up the Philippines in clashes with China over disputed territory in the South China Sea, according to the force’s commander, Marine Rotational Force — Darwin commander Col. Brian Mulvihill. “We were given a warning order to support the Philippines defense forces in resupplying of the Second Thomas Shoal,” Mulvihill said. Mulvihill, a veteran of Iraq and Afghanistan, who commands 2,000 Marines in the territory.

He revealed that members of the rotational force have been in the Philippines for extended periods this year for the Balikatan “Valiant Shield and Marine Aviation Support Activity” exercises. With clashes between Filipino and Chinese forces at the shoal intensifying in recent months, Mulvihill specifically said his force can help with logistics and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance and guard locations that support Philippine forces operating towards the disputed shoal. “Deploying Marines in the Philippines with their aviation, long-range rockets, and other hardware has a political significance in itself,” he added.

Signed in 2007, the Philippines and Australia maintain a bilateral Status of Visiting Forces Agreement (SOVFA) concerning the status of armed forces from each state while in the territory of the other. Fraudulently, in both the SOVFA and VFA with Washington, the Philippines maintains no forces in either country.


Hot line

Amid persistent strains between the Philippines and China – with US intervention – Manila and China agreed to set up new communication lines to improve their handling of maritime disputes as ties sour over clashes about territory in the SCS. Three communication channels are to be established specifically for maritime issues, constituted under an "Arrangement on Improving Philippines-China Maritime Communication Mechanisms", as signed during regular talks between them on July 2.

Beijing, Manila agree on managing Ren'ai Reef situation

Similarly, China and the Philippines reached a provisional arrangement on "humanitarian resupply of living necessities" to a grounded Philippine vessel at the disputes Ren'ai Reef, a move signaling the willingness of both sides to cool down tensions in the South China Sea.

China recently held a series of consultations with the Philippines on managing the situation at Ren'ai Reef ( 仁爱礁/仁愛礁 or Second Thomas Shoal) and reached a provisional arrangement, the Chinese foreign ministry said. “The two sides have agreed to jointly manage differences on maritime issues and work for de-escalation in the South China Sea, according to the statement,” the ministry said.

Just the same, the Philippines’ foreign affairs department said it will still assert South China Sea rights after the resupply deal with China. Manila said it “will not prejudice our respective national positions.” “In our desire to de-escalate the situation in the South China Sea to manage differences in a peaceful manner, we emphasize that the agreement was done in good faith and the Philippines remains ready to implement it,” the foreign affairs department said.

Thus, such signs of occasional cooperation between China and the Philippines do not gloss over the bigger picture which evokes of contention and saber-rattling over territorial claims.

RIMPAC 2024: Training for a China war

The 29th edition of the biennial Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) exercise, the world's largest international maritime exercise, kicked off on June 24 in Hawaii and will last until August 1. About 29 nations including the Philippines, 40 surface ships, three submarines, 14 national land forces, over 150 aircraft and more than 25,000 personnel will train and operate in and around the Hawaiian Islands during the exercise, which runs until Aug. 1. The RIMPAC exercise has grown over the years to be the world’s largest and premier joint combined maritime training opportunity

The RIMPAC 2024- the world's premier joint and combined exercise in the maritime domain - showcases the combat capabilities of the US and its allies. US Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Lisa Franchetti emphasized the importance of interoperability, partnerships, and submarines in future conflicts, particularly with China. The exercise involves dozens of countries, numerous warships, aircraft, and thousands of troops. RIMPAC highlights the US commitment to defending the region and maintaining peace and stability. The US Navy's submarine fleet, the largest in the world, plays a critical role in this deterrence effort. The US Navy has more than 70 nuclear-powered submarines of several different types. With attack submarines and ballistic-missile subs, the Navy’s submarine fleet has a superior firepower in a potential war. 

Ongoing US military operations

Outside RIMPAC, the US has increased its military operations in the SCS in the last two years potentially provoking armed hostilities with China: in the form of increased exposure to the Taiwan Strait transit operations, deployments of carrier strike groups (CSGs), submarine activities, US-Philippine joint patrols, military exercises and drills.

In particular, the US has deployed in the South China Sea the following:

1. Carrier strike groups (CSGs): In 2023, the US deployed three CSGs, namely USS Nimitz (CVN-68), USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76), and USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70);
2. Two Amphibious ready groups (ARGs), namely, USS Makin Island and USS America, for activities in the South China Sea.
3. Submarines: at least 11 nuclear attack submarines plus two ballistic nuclear missile submarines for strategic cruise missions in the Western Pacific including the SCS.
4. Bombers: 30 B-52H or B-1B bomber sorties in the Western Pacific in total. 
5. Intensifying Aerial Close-in Reconnaissance by conducting around 1,000 sorties in various types of large reconnaissance aircraft from bases such as Kadena in Okinawa, Osan in South Korea, Andersen in Guam, and Clark (a former US air force base in Angeles City, Philippines) for reconnaissance missions in the South China Sea throughout the year.
6. Increasingly Targeted Maritime Reconnaissance Activities

Enhancing US-Philippine military cooperation inside the Philippines:

1. Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (2014) allowing the US entry of forces and equipment in five locations, adding four more 2022 near Taiwan.
2. Joint Operations with Japan, Australia and other US allies: growth in joint
   exercises and training intensity with Japan and Australia 
3. Exercises and Drills for Enhancing Combat Readiness 
4. Deepening Participation of Allied and Partner Countries (in 2023, the US
   military conducted a total of 107 large-scale exercises and drills in the South
   China Sea and its surrounding areas, an increase in both quantity and scale
   compared to 2022).

Subic Bay

In addition, the US is also eyeing the retooling of Subic Bay (site of the US Naval Base during the Cold War) as a base for deterrence against China. Subic Bay in Olongapo City is on the west coast of Luzon in the Philippines. It lies about a hundred kilometers northwest of Manila Bay and is near the disputed Scarborough Shoal. The US operated its naval base on Subic Bay for about 94 years before finally relinquishing it in 1991 partly owing to a strong anti-bases movement led by Leftist groups. Amid heightened tension with China, the Philippines has reignited military activity in Subic Bay: Subic’s deep harbor and proximity to the South China Sea make it an ideal option for military operations. Subic is also an hour away from the Taiwan island province and is 30 minutes away by F-14.

Last June, reports suggested that the Philippines was considering establishing a new base at Subic Bay to enhance its capability for aerial surveillance and power projection in the South China Sea. Two years ago, the US military was poised to return to Subic Bay.

More menacingly, the NATO announced in early July that it is expanding in the Asia-Pacific region which is clearly aimed at China’s territory and sovereignty even as the US has deployed Tomahawk missile launchers in recent military drills in the Philippines, thus fueling conflicts in the region. A morphed Asia-Pacific NATO threatens not only China but agitates turbulence in the region that has long enjoyed peace and stability. NATO’s presence will also undermine ASEAN’s centrality which has committed to regional peace, integration and cooperation for 48 years.

Cold War

Marcos’ foreign policy remains trapped in the Cold War mindset by supporting the US as it intimidates China and maintaining itself as a puppet. His foreign policy violates the 1987 Philippine constitutional provision calling for an independent foreign policy. It transgresses the ASEAN’s policy of non-alignment, peace and development. It also contravenes the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) which binds the Philippines after its signing in May 2021.

Naively, the Marcos government narrows down foreign policy into an alliance security system forever in the grip of the US. It suffers from a cognitive dissonance that is unable to comprehend seismic shifts in the world system. The world has transitioned from a unipolar hegemony of the US to an emerging multipolar system amid the descent of the American Empire and, on the other, the ascendance of major, non-imperial powers like Russia, China, India, Indonesia, Vietnam, and other countries. The multipolar world has given birth to multilateral arrangements like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO); the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which links 150 countries through infrastructure and other connectivity projects; the Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) with close to 50 other countries applying to join.

In the final analysis, the Marcos government is incapable of maintaining an “independent foreign policy” not only because it is beholden to the US but equally so because it has not taken any meaningful step toward building a stable and strong economy. Only a strong, stable and self-sufficient economy that is dependent to no one will guarantee an independent foreign policy.

Under Marcos, peace remains elusive after dropping diplomacy and the peaceful settlement of disputes. War has been his penultimate choice. #