DANGEROUS TIMES: Marcos rejects diplomacy and cuddles militarism

Bobby Tuazon
Director for Policy Studies
CenPEG
(July 19, 2024 CenPEG’s 16th State of the Presidency)

In the realm of foreign policy, the Marcos administration served in the past year as a staunch ally of the US; he has strengthened aggressively his country’s defense alliance by allowing the entry of US troops and military equipment in the nine Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreements (EDCA) locations – four of them opened in early 2024; as well as in conducting joint military drills bilaterally and multilaterally in the South China Sea (SCS). These activities engendered more tensions with China thereby dragging the Philippines to a potential war between the US and its long-time adversary. As a whole, Marcos abandoned international diplomacy that underscore peaceful dialogue particularly in resolving maritime disputes with China and tied the country’s defense future with the US even if it is clear that America will “not die for the Philippines,” as a former president said.

The next four years of Marcos will see the Philippines in an even worsening danger.

Marcos Jr.’s pro-Washington policy essentially pulled the Philippines out from a bilateral resolution in 2017 by Manila and Beijing that sought the peaceful settlement of disputes through a bilateral mechanism. The withdrawal has resulted in the escalation of maritime disputes with China with US backing Manila no matter that such promise is inflated or rhetorical at best. A major indicator of this confrontational approach was the Marcos government’s tearing down of joint Chinese-Philippine infrastructure (i.e. rail) projects agreed upon years ago to be replaced by the expansion of the US military’s footprint across the Philippines (i.e., more EDCAs, expanded war drills, for example).

The geopolitical frame of Marcos supports his neo-colonial master US President Joe Biden’s track of branding China as the greatest “existential threat” – a tone that resonated in both presidents’ two meetings in 2022 and 2023. In those meetings, Marcos Jr. pledged his full support to US foreign and security policies with Biden reiterating his commitment to an “iron-clad” defense relationship with the Marcos government and the latter supporting a provocative proxy war with China.

Tragically, Congress through its committees on foreign relations and defense, continues to gloss over its constitutional function as an oversight to the president’s foreign policy making. This only implies that both chambers of Congress – the lower House and the Senate – support the President’s pro-US and anti-China stance. Marcos’s pro-US policy lies at the back of his anti-China policy regardless that both Manila and Beijing maintain strong trade relations.

And yet what is President Marcos hiding from the people – or is he completely unaware of the US’ aggressive military operations in the South China Sea and the Philippines?

Recent reports indicate that the US has increased its military operations in the SCS in the last two years potentially provoking armed hostilities with China: in the form of increased exposure to the Taiwan Strait transit operations, deployments of carrier strike groups (CSGs), submarine activities, US-Philippine joint patrols, military exercises and drills.

In particular, the US has deployed in the South China Sea the following:

1. Carrier strike groups (CSGs): In 2023, the US deployed three CSGs, namely USS Nimitz (CVN-68), USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76), and USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70);
2. Two Amphibious ready groups (ARGs), namely, USS Makin Island and USS America, for activities in the South China Sea. 
3. Submarines: at least 11 nuclear attack submarines plus two ballistic nuclear missile submarines for strategic cruise missions in the Western Pacific including the SCS.
4. Bombers: 30 B-52H or B-1B bomber sorties in the Western Pacific in total. 
5. Intensifying Aerial Close-in Reconnaissance by conducting around 1,000 sorties in various types of large reconnaissance aircraft from bases such as Kadena in Okinawa, Osan in South Korea, Andersen in Guam, and Clark (a former US air force base in Angeles City, Philippines) for reconnaissance missions in the South China Sea throughout the year. 
6. Increasingly Targeted Maritime Reconnaissance Activities

Enhancing US-Philippine military cooperation inside the Philippines:

1. Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (2014) allowing the US entry of forces and equipment in five locations, adding four more 2022 near Taiwan.
2. Joint Operations with Japan, Australia and other US allies: growth in joint exercises and training intensity with Japan and Australia. 
3. Exercises and Drills for Enhancing Combat Readiness 
4. Deepening Participation of Allied and Partner Countries (in 2023, the US military conducted a total of 107 large-scale exercises and drills in the South China Sea and its surrounding areas, an increase in both quantity and scale compared to 2022).

More menacingly, the NATO announced last week that it is expanding in the Asia-Pacific region which is clearly aimed at China’s territory and sovereignty even as the US has deployed Tomahawk missile launchers in recent military drills in the Philippines, thus fueling conflicts in the region. A morphed Asia-Pacific NATO threatens not only China but agitates turbulence in the region that has long enjoyed peace and stability. NATO’s presence will also undermine ASEAN’s centrality which has committed to regional peace, integration and cooperation for 48 years.

Marcos’ foreign policy remains trapped in the Cold War mindset by supporting the US as it intimidates China and maintaining itself as a puppet. His foreign policy violates the 1987 Philippine constitutional provision calling for an independent foreign policy. It transgresses the ASEAN’s policy of non-alignment, peace and development. It also contravenes the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) which binds the Philippines after its signing in May 2021.

Naively, the Marcos government narrows down foreign policy into an alliance security system forever in the grip of the US. It suffers from a cognitive dissonance that is unable to comprehend seismic shifts in the world. The world has transitioned from a unipolar hegemony of the US to an emerging multipolar system amid the descent of the American Empire and, on the other, the ascendance of major, non-imperial powers like Russia, China, India, Indonesia, Vietnam, and other countries. The multipolar world has given birth to multilateral arrangements like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO); the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which links 150 countries through infrastructure and other projects; the Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) with close to 50 other countries applying to join.

In the final analysis, the Marcos government is incapable of maintaining an “independent foreign policy” not only because it is beholden to the US but equally so because it has not taken any meaningful step toward building a stable and strong economy. Only a strong, stable and self-sufficient economy that is dependent to no one will guarantee an independent foreign policy.

Under Marcos, peace remains elusive after dropping diplomacy. War has been his penultimate choice. #