MAY 2025 MONTHLY POLITICAL PAPER

Center for People Empowerment in Governance (CenPEG)
Published on 05 June 2025

SEISMIC SHIFT IN POWER POLITICS AS IMPEACHMENT NEARS; COGNITIVE WARFARE UNDERPINS U.S. WAR ON CHINA WITH MARCOS SERVING AS PAWN

Philippine mid-term polls yield seismic power shift, people’s hunger deepens; US military-industrial complex continues to profit from SCS tensions


I. PHILIPPINE POLITICS

Power shift after May mid-term elections

The 2025 midterm polls took place amid a bitter political feud, after the Philippines’ top two officials who once ran as a team hit their lowest point since their breakup. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Vice President Sara Duterte, who were allied as the Uniteam of 2022, virtually battled it out as aspiring government officials took sides, or tried to play in both.

Overall, the results of the mid-term elections were a vote against incumbent President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. signaling a seismic shift in political power. Key allies of detained former President Rodrigo Duterte and two liberal opposition candidates were among the top winners: Christopher “Bong” Go, erstwhile protégé of Duterte and former senator Paolo Benigno "Bam" Aguirre Aquino IV. Aquino III of the Katipunan ng Nagkakaisang Pilipino (KANP), had served as a senator from 2013 to 2019 and as deputy Senate minority leader from 2017 to 2019. He is one of two liberal opposition bets who won.

 Former and reelectionist senators along with dynastic names secured the majority of the 12 Senate seats at stake. Aside from Go and Aquino IV, the winning pack included reelectionist and former police chief Roland “Bato” dela Rosa, Erwin Tulfo, brother of incumbent senator Raffy (ACT-CIS partylist), former senator and vice presidential contender Francisco “Kiko” Pangilinan (Liberal Party opposition), Rodante Marcoleta (Independent but a known Duterte supporter), former senator Panfilo Lacson, former Senate President and TV performer Vicente “Tito” Castelo Sotto III, reelectionist senator and sister of Sen. Alan Peter, Pia Cayetano (NP), Camille Villar (NP), former House deputy speaker, youngest daughter of former senate president and wealthiest property builder Manny Villar and wife former senator Cynthia Villar, movie action star Lito Lapid (LP), and presidential sister Imee Marcos (NP).


Game of Thrones

Once again, the Senate results validated the resiliency of family dynasties – a system that has dominated national politics for several decades now. Likewise, the outcome delivered an unexpected boost to Vice President Sara Duterte ahead of her looming impeachment trial in the Senate, while dealing a blow to President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s administration, whose candidates underperformed in what is traditionally a midterm show of strength. Sara, daughter of former president Rodrigo Duterte, is speculated to be gunning for the top post in the 2028 presidential derby. That will depend on whether she can hurdle the looming Senate impeachment – where a possible conviction  will ban her from running for any elective office for life.

The 12 new senators will play a crucial role in whether Duterte’s impeachment by the House of Representatives in the 19th Congress will come to a conviction in the upper house Senate in the 20th Congress.

Voter dissatisfaction

The Senate results also reflected a vote against the administration, rather than an endorsement of Duterte’s return to influence. It served as a referendum for the Marcos team and its predestination in the 2028 presidential race.

Five of the 12 winning senators were endorsed by Sara Duterte, including her father’s former lieutenants Go and Dela Rosa, and alliance candidates Imee Marcos and Camille Villar—both members of elite political families. Five other winners were considered allied with Marcos, while two—Paolo Benigno “Bam” Aquino and Francis “Kiko” Pangilinan—came from the Katipunan ng Nagkakaisang Pilipino (KANP Society of United Filipinos) and Liberal Party, respectively.

Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, detained at the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague, won in absentia as mayor in his hometown Davao City. The fact that five candidates backed by his family led the Senate race at midterm showed the Duterte political dynasty’s continued grip on power. Duterte was the mayor of the southern city thrice, serving a total of 22 years. In his absence, the post will be assumed by the city’s vice mayor, a position currently held by his son, Sebastian Duterte. In the Philippines, candidates facing criminal charges, including those in detention, can run for office unless they are convicted. Duterte is awaiting trial for crimes against humanity related to his war on illegal drugs that left thousands of suspects dead during his presidency from 2016 to 2022. Philippine lawyer Kristina Conti, an assistant to counsel at the ICC, has said the court is also investigating Senators Dela Rosa and Go for complicity in the drug war.

For decades now, Davao has been the turf of the Duterte dynasty with the latter holding a tight grip over the southern island of Mindanao; their popularity remains high among voters. Several other Dutertes enjoyed electoral success in the mid-term polls, including Rodrigo’s youngest son, Sebastian, who was elected Davao’s vice-mayor, and will assume the responsibilities of the mayoralty in the absence of his father. Nepotism is not the sole preserve of the Dutertes; the practice of political dynasticism has long hindered Philippine democracy – at least in form - often at the expense of tackling substantive issues for the Filipino people.

Shifting power politics has long been institutionalized as the revolving door of dynastic rule persists with one family dynasty in power at one point only to be replaced by another. In the end, systemic power shifts leave the people reeling from poverty and joblessness amid corruption and the absence of substantive social and economic reforms. The political system serves as the breeding ground of an economic structure lorded over by the dynastic elite.

Cabinet shake-up

Following a tradition in the national executive leadership after elections, President Marcos on May 29 asked his secretaries for a courtesy resignation allowing him a free rein in forming a new Cabinet. Justice Secretary Jesus Crispin Remulla, Interior Secretary Juan Victor Remulla, and Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr., remained as Cabinet members. Teodoro and the Remullas — officials who were most prominent in the arrest of former president Rodrigo Duterte — were staying. Marcos accepted the courtesy resignation of Solicitor General Menardo Gueverra, replaced by University of the Philippines law Dean Darlene Berberabe, and Commission on Higher Education Chairperson Prospero “Popoy” de Vera, replaced by CHEd Commissioner Shirley Agrupis. One courtesy resignation that remains unacted upon by the chief executive is that of National Security Adviser Eduardo Año who as a general was widely known as a perpetrator of human rights violations. Secretaries advise the president on policy matters and serve at his pleasure.

The Cabinet purge could indicate that Marcos was dissatisfied with the “performance” of some secretaries. Such performance, however, should also be measured on how the President commands his executive officials – his own alter egos and confidantes. All presidents, after all, hold command responsibility and accountability for the performance of their subordinates – for instance, his economic team for their poor performance in combating chronic poverty, unemployment, and perennial international trade deficits. Some groups are calling for the President’s own resignation saying that he is as much accountable as his secretaries with his first three years plagued by unprecedented poverty, joblessness, high inflation, and corruption. Two past presidents were ousted or forced to resign by bloodless civilian uprising - Marcos Sr. and Estrada.

 

Impeachment

The 12 elected senators will form half of the jury in Vice President Sara Duterte’s impeachment trial, which has been moved from June 2 to June 11. If found guilty by the Senate convened as an impeachment court, she will be removed from office and barred from contesting future elections. She was impeached in February by the House of Representatives – led by presidential cousin House Speaker Martin Romualdez - after being accused of crimes ranging from the misuse of public funds to plotting Marcos’s assassination. Other charges against her are betrayal of public trust, graft and corruption over alleged misuse and malversation of funds, and others, As expected, the vice president insists the impeachment is part of a political vendetta as the two families battle for power.

 To be acquitted, Sara Duterte needs the votes of at least nine of 24 senators or 37.5% of the entire chamber. At least two other senators who were not part of the elections were seen as supporters of the vice president. Other senators may support her acquittal depending on public opinion during the trial, political pressure from the administration and intangible political benefits. The Senate will convene as an impeachment court on June 11.

Constitutionalists say her impeachment is more than a constitutional exercise - it is a public spectacle with implications for governance, democracy, and the future of political dynasties in the Philippines.

Sara Duterte’s impeachment in the Senate remains in transition with the Senate President, Salvador “Chiz” Escudero, being accused of delaying the proceedings. Under the law the lower House transmits the articles of impeachment to the Senate which is mandated to try the accused swiftly. Progressive groups are calling for Escudero’s resignation.


Think tank on impeachment

On Vice President Sara Duterte’s impeachment the think tank Center for People Empowerment in Governance (CenPEG) in a public statement expressed deep concern over the apparent drift toward impunity in the face of the impeachment complaint filed against her. As allegations of misuse of public funds and abuse of authority mount, any deliberate inaction or political shielding by the country’s top institutions threatens to erode the rule of law and constitutional accountability, the group averred.

 If there was impunity for extrajudicial killings during the Duterte presidency, CenPEG said, there is now impunity for corruption and plunder under the Marcos Jr. administration. Indeed, they are two sides of the same coin: regimes that treat power as a shield from accountability and justice.

24 members of the upper chamber

After the mid-term polls, the following are the Senate members – old and new - and their political affiliations: Nancy Binay (UNA), Pia Cayetano (Nacionalista), Ronald dela Rosa (PDP), Christopher “Bong” Go (PDP), Lito Lapid (NPC), Imee Marcos (Nacionalista), Grace Poe (Independent), Ramon “Bong” Revilla (Lakas), Francis Tolentino (PFP), Alan Peter Cayetano (Independent), Pia Cayetano, JV Ejercito (NPC), Francis “Chiz” Escudero (NPC, incumbent Senate President), Jinggoy Estrada (PMP), Loren Legarda (NPC), Win Gatchalian (NPC), Risa Hontiveros (Akbayan), Robin Padilla (PDP), Raffy Tulfo (Independent), Joel Villanueva (Independent), Mark Villar (Nacionalista), Migz Zubiri (Independent),  Rodante  Marcoleta (Independent), Erwin Tulfo (Independent), and Camille Villar (Nacionalista).

 There will be four sibling pairs in the Senate for the 20th Congress -- Senators Jinggoy Estrada and JV Ejercito, sons of former President Joseph Estrada; Senators Mark and Camille Villar; Senators Pia and Alan Peter Cayetano; and Senators Raffy and Erwin Tulfo. The new senators will assume office on June 30 and will serve until 2031. Such a phenomenon involving siblings has survived generations.

 Unexpectedly, the midterm election outcome provided strong backing for Duterte and boosted his daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte, ahead of her impeachment trial in the Senate in June. The election was also a blow to President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s administration, whose candidates did not do as well as expected in midterm polls when the president’s influence is usually strong.

 Five of the 12 Senate race winners were endorsed by Sara Duterte, including the president’s sister, Imee Marcos, and Camille Villar, another Marcos alliance candidate from a wealthy political family. Five others were aligned with Marcos, while two surprise winners were from the opposition. Two Duterte allies were among the top five.

 Christopher Go, administrator of then Davao City Mayor Duterte and a former Cabinet member also under Duterte, led the Senate winners with more than 27 million votes. Ronald dela Rosa, Duterte’s first national police chief and executor of his deadly anti-drugs campaign, ranked third. Duterte served as president for six years (2016-2022).


Gut issues

The midterm elections, especially the nationally elected Senate, are seen as a forerunner for the 2028 presidential race. Many of the republic’s senators eventually ascend to the presidency. Bread and butter issues like social safety net programs, employment, poverty alleviation, and healthcare access were top of mind for most voters. In recent elections, however, bread and butter issues have been sidelined by the political culture of popularity and name recall contest backed by vote buying-selling and other forms of fraud. Elections in the Philippines do not necessarily choose “the best and the brightest”; more decisive are the traditional paradigm of “3Gs” guns, goons, and gold. Moreover, managing Philippine territorial claims, especially in the contested South China Sea, hardly mattered to many voters and international issues are at the bottom pit of their priorities. But overhanging these substantive issues was the ongoing political feud between the Marcos and Duterte camps, whose now-broken “UniTeam” alliance propelled President Marcos Jr. and Vice President Sara Duterte to power in 2022.

 The election results reflected a vote against the Marcos administration, neither was it a vote for the Dutertes since many anti-Duterte candidates also won, including in the lower house of Congress. The votes can be considered a plebiscite on Marcos, a referendum on his administration; taken together, the votes were a loss for Marcos. It will impact whoever Marcos endorses in 2028 as his successor.

 Marcos teamed with Sara Duterte to win the 2022 general elections, but their partnership soured over political differences that led to her impeachment in February and her father’s subsequent arrest and handover to the ICC.

 

II. NATIONAL ECONOMY

Hunger increases under Marcos from low family incomes, high prices

By end-March this year, economic think tank IBON said that involuntary hunger doubled under the Marcos Jr. administration due to its failure to ensure higher wages and low prices. “The rise in hunger is a wakeup call that many Filipinos are struggling on meager incomes and the high cost of living. This shows government’s rhetoric of economic gains and a robust jobs market is empty — just like the bellies of millions of hungry Filipinos,” said the group.

 The economic think tank elucidated that the number of Filipinos experiencing involuntary hunger more than doubled since the start of the Marcos Jr. administration – from 11.6% or some 2.9 million families in June 2022 to 27.2% or 7.5 million families in March 2025, citing survey data from the pollster Social Weather Stations (SWS). IBON stressed that persistent low incomes and high prices are likely behind this rise in hunger. The group estimates that, nationwide, the average daily minimum wage of PhP469 ($24.34) falls way below the PhP1,227 daily family living wage needed by a family of five, as of February 2025. An indirect indicator of low incomes is the number of households without savings in any form increasing to 20.1 million households, or 74% of the total, in the fourth quarter of 2024, based on Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) data. (The average size of a Filipino household is 4.1 members.) Meanwhile, the overall price level of food has increased by 16% between June 2022 and February 2025, according to inflation data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).

 Income gap has kept on widening. A World Bank report in 2022 ranked the Philippines 15th out of 63 countries in terms of income inequality. The top 1% of Philippine earners captured 17% of the total national income, while only 14% of the income was shared by the bottom 50%. At individual level, 15.5% Filipinos or about 17.54 million Filipinos were poor in 2023. Meanwhile, the proportion of Filipino families whose incomes were not sufficient to meet even their basic food needs in 2023 stood at 2.7% or equivalent to 740 thousand families. In 2024, other reports said, the Philippines grappled with a mix of social, economic, and environmental concerns. 

Key issues included climate change, education, health, and job security, particularly among young people. The economy maintains a steady growth rate, but persistent poverty and inequality remain challenges. Other pronounced issues include environmental concerns like air and marine pollution, red-tagging, and ongoing discussions about human rights and social justice. In the 2024 Environmental Performance Index (EPI), the Philippines ranked 169th out of 180 countries, indicating low performance in environmental protection. While the Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI) 2024 report ranked the Philippines 6th out of 67 countries, showing an improvement in climate change performance within the Asia-Pacific region.  It ranked first globally in the World Risk Index (WRI), indicating high vulnerability to climate and natural hazards. 

 In the Philippines, social stratification can be generally divided into three primary
classes: low-income, middle-income, and high-income. Recent surveys indicate that 58.4% of the population belongs to the low-income class, 40% to the middle-income class, and 1.4% to the high-income class. The middle class is further divided into lower, middle, and upper-middle income categories. This economic nuance can be explained by joblessness, poverty, and other complex issues prevailing among a large majority of Filipinos.

 Roughly 30% of the country’s 117mln population lives in informal settlements, otherwise known as “squatters”. This includes a significant portion of the population in Metro Manila, where about 25% of the population in Metro Manila are informal settlers many of them found in Quezon City.

Voting trends

Decisive in voting trends is “socioeconomic” or “income” class. A typology developed by Albert, et al. (“Profile and Determinants of the Middle-Income Class in the Philippines” December 2018), showed 58.4 percent of the country’s population, in 2015, belonged to the poor and low-income classes; 40.2 percent were part of the middle-income class; and 1.65 percent were considered upper-income and rich (P114,240 or more). The lower class represents the crucial “block” or “class” vote in any elections. The results of recent polls more or less reflect the will and preference of this great social class, which constitutes the less educated.

III. INTERNATIONAL STRAINS

Geopolitics Looms Large: Does it matter in elections?

Another central dynamic of the May midterm elections was the Philippines’ relationship with the United States. At the very least, the election was, for the ruling elite, a referendum on Philippine ties with its former colonial master, the United States.  Marcos has sought closer ties with the US, bringing the Philippines back in line with its long- standing alliance with America and battling Chinese influence in regional waters. In effect Marcos, as he promised in 2022 to former US President Joe Biden in a meeting, will in the middle of his term, carry on a commitment to protect America’s geopolitical interests in the region under a “solid-rock” defense alliance, allowing the Philippines as a venue for war drills and as a gambit in the US’ belligerent proxy war on China in the South China Sea. This contrasts with former President Duterte’s emphasis on securing Chinese investment for infrastructure projects and downplaying the Philippines’ claims in the South China Sea.

 It wasn’t just the elite who were concerned about the Philippines’ place in U.S.-China tensions. Pre-election surveying by Social Weather Stations (SWS) revealed that 83% of respondents backed candidates who emphasized defending national sovereignty, making it a key issue for Philippine voters. SWS’ January report stated that “public sentiment favors leaders advocating for a stronger [US] military presence, diplomatic strategies and reinforced national defense policies.” (However, such surveys have been conducted with mostly ill-informed respondents who either have no prior competent knowledge of China and related issues and/or are influenced by strong China-bashing disinformation, and the existing colonial mentality that pervades among many Filipinos.

This may not have translated into the results Marcos wanted, but geopolitical concerns continue to loom large over domestic Philippine affairs and, with China’s increased assertiveness, as reported, in the South China Sea, and is an issue that is not breezing away. Shaken by the midterm results, Marcos is likely to become further reliant on deepening US-Philippines ties to affirm his credibility in terms of national security.

US-Philippines relations play into the Marcos-Duterte feud, and not just the two leaders’ contrasting foreign policies. In a classic case of opportunism, Duterte’s camp – which had been unfriendly with the US - has previously appealed to President Donald Trump to throw his weight behind the incarcerated mayor and place further scrutiny on the ICC. (Both the US and later the Philippines under Duterte had withdrawn their membership from the ICC.) Emboldened by a strong midterm showing, Duterte’s allies may return to this strategy with his initial trial fast approaching.

Trump’s influence doesn’t count in the given issue, however. As an independent world organization, the International Criminal Court (ICC) is not part of the United Nations system. It is governed by the Rome Statute, a treaty that established the court as an independent judicial body. The ICC's independence is reflected in its structure, with a Prosecutor who is also independent and can initiate investigations on their own initiative or upon request from a State Party. The Assembly of States Parties provides oversight but does not directly control the court's functions. 

Moreover, the United States is becoming less popular globally in the aftermath of Donald Trump’s return to the White House, according to new data. The 2025 Democracy Perception Index summarizes attitudes toward democracy, geopolitics and global power players, and canvassed more than 110,000 respondents across 100 countries. A majority of people surveyed had an overall negative perception of the U.S., marking a steep decline from last year. America’s reputation took a nosedive in EU countries — perhaps unsurprisingly, as U.S. President Donald Trump has called the bloc “horrible,” “pathetic” and “formed to screw the United States.”

Meanwhile, China kept improving its global standing, overtaking the US. for the first time and recording mostly positive perceptions in all regions except Europe.

No comprehensive surveys have been conducted as regards the SCS maritime tensions. It is widely known however that awareness and trust in China among Filipinos are complex and varied. While Filipinos generally have a low level of trust in China, this doesn't necessarily mean they are completely ignorant of the country. Many Filipinos may be aware of China's existence and its influence, but their understanding is limited to specific issues like maritime disputes or trade relations. Or are influenced by US-friendly sources including think tanks, politicians and mainstream media whose understanding of China is limited if not biased. 

Filipino workers are commonly employed in China in various sectors, including as domestic workers, and in industries like hospitality, gambling, and construction, particularly in Macau. Many Filipinos also work in service and sales roles. The Philippine government estimates that mainland China is a primary destination for Filipino maids seeking overseas employment. To add, China is the Philippines’ largest trading partner.

Marcos’ commitment in the talks is far from the truth, however. The Marcos government indeed has continued to maintaining strong alliance with the US believing that tying his government’s security to the hips of the US serves as a deterrent against China, unaware however, of his being peddled as a pawn in a proxy war with Beijing and that fomenting tensions in the sea advances the interests of the US military-industrial complex.

How Marcos will, in the next three years, wade through the tidal wave of disquiet remains a big question.  #