RISING TENSION BETWEEN MARCOS AND DUTERTE, AMID ECONOMIC ISSUES, INCREASED US MILITARY PRESENCE

Summary of the December 2024 CenPEG Monthly Political, Economic, and Foreign Policy Analysis

Political Situation

Tensions between the Marcos and Duterte political dynasties intensified, fueling public dissatisfaction ahead of the 2025 mid-term elections. The House of Representatives recommended charges against former President Rodrigo Duterte and his allies for violating international humanitarian law. Meanwhile, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. issued Executive Order No. 81, restructuring the National Security Council to exclude the Vice President and former presidents. Despite calls for Duterte’s prosecution, Marcos opposed impeachment efforts against Vice President Sara Duterte, raising concerns about Duterte’s lingering influence over the military. Instead, Marcos and his allies continued targeting progressive opposition groups, with the National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict (NTF-ELCAC) emboldened under his administration.

Economic Situation

Marcos’ claims of prioritizing economic recovery were met with skepticism. The record-high P6.3 trillion 2025 National Budget revealed large allocations for pork barrel projects, intelligence funds, infrastructure, and defense, which critics argue are vulnerable to corruption and patronage. In contrast, key social services like healthcare and social welfare remained underfunded. Despite government claims of economic growth, many Filipinos continued to struggle with stagnant wages and rising costs of living, further fueling dissatisfaction.

Foreign Policy

Tensions in the South China Sea (SCS) escalated as the United States expanded its military presence in the region, contradicting Marcos’ stated policy of non-escalation. The arrival of US warships, including the nuclear-powered USS Carl Vinson, followed China’s submission of new territorial charts to the United Nations on December 13, 2024. In response, the Philippines increased joint military exercises with the US and its allies, including the deployment of a US medium-range missile system in early December—an act China viewed as provocative. While diplomatic solutions remain open through multilateral frameworks like the ASEAN-China Code of Conduct, the Philippines must carefully assert its sovereignty to prevent further hostilities.

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