The May 2022 Elections and the Marcos Restoration: Looking Back and Beyond
Posted by CenPEG.org
22 June 2022
The new administration of Marcos, Jr. and Sara Duterte faces a daunting set of governance challenges rooted in festering structural and institutional constraints amidst the Covid-19 pandemic and rapid changes in the regional and global environment.
Voters wait for their turn to vote (Courtesy: AlJazeera)
Poll automation a sinking ship; time to use a hybrid system
Posted by CenPEG / 21 May 2022
Comelec’s AES – outsourced from foreign company Smartmatic since 2010 – is now a sinking ship that should be replaced immediately by a more reliable election system.
FIT4E convened by CenPEG in 2011 proposed alternative voting system.
MOMENT OF TRUTH
Voters go to the polls on May 9
MONTHLY POLITICAL ANALYSIS No. 14
Center for People Empowerment in Governance
April 2022 / Public Edition
If the rebranding stories are true, many of the votes that could go to Marcos, Jr. on May 9 can be said to be the result of social media manipulation.
Cambridge Analytica
Disqualification cases roil Marcos camp; biggest Left political bloc backs Robredo-Pangilinan team
Posted by CenPEG
14 February 2022
Whatever their final outcomes in the Comelec, these legal cases will almost certainly be appealed to the Supreme Court and its consequences for the entire presidential race are immense.
A Race for Power of Political Dynasties
Bobby M. Tuazon
Posted 26 Jan. 2022
The May 2022 elections will further entrench the country’s ruling political dynasties while the Filipino people will continue to be marginalized from exercising their democratic rights to governance. Once again, we will see familiar faces and the same political dynasties not only in Malacañang but also in Congress and the provinces.
Photo by The Atlantic
Clash of political dynasties
Accents May 2022 elections
November 2021 Monthly Political Analysis
Posted 17 Dec. 2021, CenPEG
The May 2022 presidential race is turning out to be a repeat of previous elections – a feud among the country’s dominant political dynasties. The jockeying for power has resulted in the split of the ruling political party, political realignments, and moves by one clique that are apparently meant to mislead rivals. In the end, these dynastic conflicts leave many voters puzzled and others, outraged.
Photo: Tribune.net
On proclaiming a winning candidate
Nelson Celis, Manila Times, Dec. 15, 2021
Posted by CenPEG 17 Dec. 2021
The proclamation of a winning candidate should be based on the electronically transmitted and digitally signed election results.
Smartmatic machines
We need to renew 'new politics' for the May 2022 polls
Nov. 16, 2021, Rappler
Posted by CenPEG Nov. 17, 2021
Photo courtesy SunStar
For all the issues pestering the country’s election system, one of the most critical issues is the need to demystify the election of a president as the elixir for the country’s woes.
Major Presidential Bets Formalize Candidacies but Last-Minute Surprises still Possible till Mid-November
CenPEG, 11 Nov. 2021
In the configuration of political forces and personalities as seen in the presidential and vice-presidential candidacies, what stands out is a divided broad opposition (five candidates) as against a single candidate (Marcos, Jr.) so far, who is identified with the administration.
The formidable force to contend with in 2022 elections
Nelson Celis, September 1, 2021,
The Manila Times
Posted by CenPEG, Sept. 1, 2021
ELECTION FRAUD protest.jpg
It is best that all watchdogs come together and be united to protect our votes in the 2022 elections. This is the only way to serve the majority of the Filipino people who are still hoping that their votes are really counted.
The ideal OQC operations for the 2022 elections
Nelson Celis / August 4, 2021 / Manila Times
Posted by CenPEG, 10 August 2021
Transparency server
This is a mind-boggling concern as there were direct and unauthorized interventions of the Smartmatic technical team with the transparency server. It's pretty obvious that there were no actual parallel counts or OQCs as the recipients were not getting election results directly from the ground, but rather from the transparency server.
RACE FOR THE 2022 PRESIDENCY GAINS MOMENTUM
Duterte’s “swan song”; going forward with reforms
Posted by CenPEG, 07 August 2021
Protesters rally near Congress. Photo: Rappler
Given the failures of the Duterte regime – which undeniably have deep institutional roots – the next administration has an opportunity to right the wrongs ensuing from bad governance and erroneous policies and begin the process of undertaking doable reforms by taking approaches radically different from those proven to be fatal under the Duterte and previous presidencies.
A President’s Death, an ICC Call, and Realignments ahead of the 2022 Elections: A Gathering Storm?
CenPEG, 18 July 2021
The outcome of the 2022 presidential election will have consequential effects on the relevance of the ICC investigation in the country assuming that it formally proceeds.
Simplify transmission of election results for transparent 2022 elections
By Nelson Celis / Manila Times
July 14, 2021
Posted by CenPEG July 16, 2021
PPCRV transparency server / Photo credit: CNN Philippines
Martin Luther King once said, "Knowledge is a process of piling up facts; wisdom lies in their simplification."
COMMENTARY
Old ways must go in May 2022 polls
By: Bobby M. Tuazon - @inquirerdotnet Philippine Daily Inquirer / Posted by CenPEG
Concerted people’s actions can be done to put an end to clan politics that, for centuries, has made the country’s political system rotten to the core.
Jostling for the presidency amid the pandemic and flaws in the election system
CenPEG.org
Posted 16 June 2021
1Sambayan’s 6 presidential nominees
Photo: Inquirer.net
Key political figures, party machineries and a powerful group of political families are now prepositioning to be in the frontline of contention as the country heads for the next national elections in May 2022. Election fever is up.
Clean voters’ database: A challenge to a transparent 2022 elections
Nelson Celis
May 19, 2021, The Manila Times
Posted by CenPEG May 27, 2021
Fifth of a series
Comelec-DILG collaboration is already mandated under existing laws, through the local civil registrar, in delisting deceased registered voters.
Clean voters’ database: A challenge to a transparent 2022 elections
Nelson Celis, TMT / April 7, 2021
Posted by CenPEG April 15, 2021
Alleged hacker in red hood. Photo: CNNPhilippines
A few weeks before the May 9, 2016 elections, the Comelec was hacked by two groups. This infamous hacking on March 27, 2016 led to the defacement of the Comelec’s website and the leakage of its 55 million registered voters.
MONTHLY POLITICAL ANALYSIS No. 1
Center for People Empowerment in Governance (CenPEG) January 2021
Photo courtesy of Manila Bulletin
This paper examines the results of the first public opinion survey on possible presidential bets for the 2022 national elections conducted by the Pulse Asia Research Inc. from 23 November to 2 December 2020. An established polling institution in the country, Pulse Asia does regular public opinion surveys on elections and issues of public interest. However, as a survey of public perceptions for a specific period, these results do not in any way establish a definitive listing of possible presidential bets or stable preferential ratings for specific names since the actual election is still about 15 months away and changes are to be expected.
Comelec’s PCOS-OMR system rejects public counting, enhances wholesale cheating
Nelson Celis, TMT
November 25, 2020
Posted by CenPEG, Nov. 25, 2020
Is the 2009 study of CenPEG futuristic that it could predict what could have happened in the last four national and local elections? Will the Congress under President Duterte’s administration pass these pending bills for our democracy…and for the Filipino people?
Nelson Celis, TMT / October 14, 2020
Posted by CenPEG, 21 Oct. 2020
Mark Twain said, “History never repeats itself but it rhymes” — there are like-sounding conditions that re-occur throughout history but not closely or the same sound.
Nelson Celis, TMT / August 12, 2020
Posted by CenPEG Aug. 14, 2020
Comelec data leak in 2016. Image:dailypedia.net
In our government offices, we have had butterfly effect experiences. A typical example is the infamous ComeLeak in March 2016, a few weeks before the 2016 elections, as the incident created humongous consequences.
Hybrid election system in 2022: How do we proceed?
Nelson Celis, The Manila Times,
July 22, 2020
Posted by CenPEG
Comelec Commissioner Rowena Guanzon tests hybrid system during a 1-day forum-demo held by CenPEG / AES Watch at PLM in 2015. Photo by CenPEG
THE Senate Committee on Electoral Reforms and People’s Participation (Cerpp), led b
y Sen. María Imelda Josefa Marcos, has been consistently deliberating Senate Bill (SB) 7 since it was introduced by Senate President Vicente Sotto 3rd in July last year.
DocPH, a month after
Nelson Celis / The Manila Times / May 13, 2020
Posted by CenPEG
May 13, 2020
DocPH is a form of complex bayanihan wherein a group of Filipino doctors collaborate to help their sick ‘kababayans’ or countrymen, and at the same time helping DoH and the nation fight the pandemic.
Photo from CNNPhilippines
Democracy at stake: The need for poll system standards and certification
The test certifications in the last four national and local elections resulted in a lot of technical problems because of the absence or lack of test certifications of all the Automated Election System (AES) components.
Nelson Celis, TMT, February 19, 2020
Posted by CenPEG March 08, 2020
Hearing of the Senate committee on electoral reform and people’s participation last Feb. 11, 2020. (CenPEG photo)
Rethinking ASEAN ties with U.S., signs of another Cold War may be in the air
Bobby M. Tuazon CGTN
Posted by CenPEG, 05 April 2022
Joe Biden; UK, US & Australia flags
As in the rest of the world, the Southeast Asian region will see more of this in the years ahead. The world has become more complex, and signs of another Cold War are in the air.
Maelstrom Over the Killing Fields: Interventions in the Project of National-Democratic Liberation
A Book Review by Paul Gabriel L. Cosme, Macalester College
Filipinos, especially intellectuals and compatriots, may find San Juan’s work refreshing, challenging, and seriously provocative. But above all, Maelstrom strongly reminds us of the complicated yet rich history of struggles over the making of the Filipino nation and its psyche.
The Great Faith
A novel by Jose Aguilar
(Quezon City: Pantas Publishing Inc., 2020)
Book Review
Paulino Lim Jr.
Emeritus Professor of English
California State University, Long Beach, USA
For anyone who wants to understand what it means to be a Filipino, a good place to start is Jose V. Aguilar’s engrossing historical novel The Great Faith, First published over 70 years ago, the novel is about “the Japanese occupation of the Philippines.”
The shadow of Bannon in Biden's anti-China strategy
Bobby M. Tuazon
Posted by CenPEG, 26 Oct. 2021
Steve Bannon (left) and Donald Trump, January 2020. Getty photo
The U.S. House of Representatives' recent vote to hold Steve Bannon, former President Donald Trump's chief strategist and adviser, has reopened a can of worms regarding his key role in anti-China policies that have persisted under Joe Biden.
Opinion 10:26, 28-Sep-2021
Biden's 'Pivot to Asia' at a dead end
Bobby M. Tuazon CGTN
Posted by CenPEG 03 Oct. 2021
Nuclear-powered submarine / Photo: The Australian
Biden's attempt to win over ASEAN to its side against China is doomed to fail. Not only is China the region's major trading partner, but the economic future of the ASEAN is tied to a harmonious relationship with the Asian giant.
Is the US aching for a war with China over Taiwan?
PUBLISHed by rappler SEPT. 22, 2021
Posted by CenPEG, 02 Oct. 2021
Photo by socialistalternative.org
Tracking geopolitics in the Taiwan Strait shows a looming confrontation between the US and China over Taiwan. And the US has something to do with it.
Dollars for America's war machine, human losses
Bobby M. Tuazon CGTN Opinion
Published by CGTN 13 Sept. 2021
Posted by CenPEG 20 Sept. 2021
In the long haul, U.S. military adventurism fueled by the MICC has limits. Given the overstretched military presence of the U.S. with some 700 military bases and the debacles that accentuate military failures, it will not be long before American military power will fall just like old empires.
Learning from an awakened dragon
Roland G. Simbulan - @inquirerdotnet
Philippine Daily Inquirer / July 21, 2021
Posted by CenPEG / Sept. 03, 2021
China’s core leader Xi Jinping in a talk with rural villagers. CGTN Photo
Probably the first great lesson we can learn from China is its poverty eradication program, which, according to the IMF-WB and the UNDP, is “the most successful anti- poverty program in the world.” It has uplifted more than 800 million people to middle-class status in just a matter of four decades.
War-torn Afghanistan’s future in the hands of the Taliban
Analysis by Bobby M. Tuazon
Rappler, 01 Sept. 2021
Posted by CenPEG 02 Sept. 2021
Middle Photo: Taliban Supreme Leader Mawlawi Haibatullah Akhundzada, a senior religious cleric
The Taliban takeover in Afghanistan is a reality that the world should live with. The whole of Afghanistan should be given the chance to live in peace and to decide their own destiny without foreign intervention.
Analysis
With Afghan debacle, will allies trust the US?
Bobby M. Tuazon
Posted by CenPEG, 29 Aug. 2021
Taliban leaders at a press conference in Kabul, August 15, 2021. Photo: Mother Jones
Now in control, the Taliban led by Haibatullah Akhundzada, a 60-year-old Islamic legal scholar, faces the daunting task of establishing their legitimacy, consolidating their power, and gaining international recognition.
UGNAYANG PANLABAS SA ILALIM NI DUTERTE: PANALO O TALO?
Ni Roland G. Simbulan
Posted by CenPEG, 06 August 2021
Marami na tayong aral sa ating espesyal na relasyon sa Amerika na nagpahina lamang sa ating kakayahan na ipagtanggol ang sariling teritoryo at karagatan sa West
Philippine Sea dahil sobra ang pagkasandal sa U.S. 7th Fleet.
Afghanistan, where war knows no end
Analysis
Bobby M. Tuazon
Posted by CenPEG, 28 July 2021
Photo by DailyTimes.com
If there’s any lesson Philippine authorities can learn from the Afghan war it is that military force won’t work. With the US achieving nothing after 20 years of war in Afghanistan, the Philippine government should now realize that US presence in the region serves only American interests.
REFLECTIONS ON WOMEN AND RACE DURING THE YEAR OF THE PANDEMIC
Delia D. Aguilar
Posted by CenPEG May 27, 2021
Photos courtesy of aaww.org and paloaltoonline.com
It's going to be a long, hard haul, no doubt about it. Hopefully a mass social movement will be formed that acknowledges the limitations of the previous decade's ad hoc, spontaneous forms of mobilization and will find ways to solidify and sustain itself by securing support from similarly located populations.
VFA is for keeps
Bobby M. Tuazon - @inquirerdotnet
Philippine Daily Inquirer / 04:04 AM
April 24, 2021
Posted by CenPEG, April 25, 2021
Rising tensions in South China Sea (Photo: cfr.org)
The country is vulnerable to being dragged into a shooting war between the two powers in case of accidents or extreme provocations in the SCS. By then, it will be too late to call for a VFA review.
For a nuclear weapons-free planet
Roland G. Simbulan - @inquirerdotnet
Philippine Daily Inquirer / 05:02 AM
February 06, 2021
Posted by CenPEG / April 25, 2021
Southeast Asia-Nuclear Weapons-Free Zone launching Dec. 12, 1987
The TPNW is compatible with the Philippines’ commitment to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. We must push for the ratification by the Philippine Senate of the TPNW, a constitutional process that will seal our international commitment.
Let’s celebrate resistance, not empire
Roland G. Simbulan - @inquirerdotnet Philippine Daily Inquirer / April 12, 2021 Posted by CenPEG, April 18, 2021
Battle of Mactan. Photo from Annoyz View
As a nation, we can celebrate the 500th anniversary of the Battle of Mactan as a testimony to our ancestors who fought back magnificently against the empire, from Lapulapu.
COMMENTARY
The hidden agenda behind Biden’s first foreign policy speech
Bobby M. Tuazon
Posted by CenPEG
22 Feb. 2021
Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping gestures to U.S. Vice President Joe Biden during a welcome ceremony in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Aug. 18, 2011. PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES
Joe Biden, on February 7, iterated that his administration anticipates “extreme competition” but “no conflict” with China. How conflict with China can be avoided under an environment of “extreme competition” that may spawn miscalculations and provocations precisely creates the uncertainties and intractability of Biden’s foreign policy on Beijing. Ambiguity has no place in diplomacy and makes any negotiation fractious.
Can US-China relations 'reset' in the Biden era?
Bobby M. Tuazon | chinadaily.com.cn | 01 February 2021
Posted by CenPEG, 13 February 2021
The US should begin to accept that world systems change, old powers fade and new major countries rise. With eyes open, this can potentially be the first step toward resetting China-US relations. Biden and his policymakers need to welcome Beijing's overtures toward rebuilding the two countries' relations informed by mutual respect, non-interference and cooperation.
COMMENTARY
Biden: Reclaiming US credibility
Bobby M. Tuazon - @inquirerdotnet
January 18, 2021
Posted by CenPEG Jan. 18, 2021
Photo: The New Republic
Philippine-US relations under the new Biden presidency will be shaped by America’s foreign policy on China in East Asia, most especially the South China Sea issue. Unlike the hawkish Trump administration, moderation and predictability may define Biden’s foreign policy on Beijing. But this doesn’t mean it will be less tough on issues that Washington sees as a threat to US primacy, or that it will allow China to have free rein.
Prospect for US-Philippine Relations: US-Biden vs China-Duterte?
Featuring an Interview with Bill Fletcher
E. San Juan, Jr.
Amid the horrendous pandemic ravaging of the globalized political-economy of Europe and North America, particularly the imperial U.S. heartland with close to half-a-million deaths, peripheral nations remain negligible. The neoliberal consensus has collapsed, inaugurating a new era of trade wars and ecological disasters. Such “shithole” countries like the Philippines, to use President Trump’s rubric, rarely enter public attention.
Biden eyes a tougher regional presence
Bobby M. Tuazon - @inquirerdotnet
Philippine Daily Inquirer / October 18, 2020
Posted by CenPEG Oct. 21, 2020
Fil-Am early voter in US
In the Philippines, Biden’s foreign policy plan intersects with political forces, including defense and foreign affairs honchos, who want defense ties with the United States back on track as a deterrent to China.
A DISPATCH FROM THE ‘BELLY OF THE BEAST’
U.S.-based scholar E. San Juan, Jr. interviews Bill Fletcher Jr., African-American public intellectual
"I do not anticipate any changes in the near future in the absence of a movement on the ground in the USA that pushes the US on foreign policy generally and the US/Philippines relationship in particular. Frankly, the relationship is very comfortable for the USA and the ruling circles see no reason to change this." - Bill Fletcher, Jr.
Pandesal Forum, May 6, 2022
NEXTGEN ANALYTICS GROUP TO PRESENT DATA FORESEEING VP LENI WIN
Pandesal Forum, April 22, 2022
Can we trust the Smartmatic AES system on May 9? 
A quest for peace in Europe
Bobby M. Tuazon - @inquirerdotnet
Philippine Daily Inquirer / March 16, 2022
Posted by CenPEG / March 16, 2022
The proposed new European security system needs a space in the diplomatic table to allow a peaceful solution to conflicts in Ukraine and elsewhere. It will create a security balance which means a freeze if not a complete halt to Nato expansion.
The Russians are coming!
FEB 23, 2022 / Rappler
BOBBY TUAZON
Posted by CenPEG, 01 March 2022
In war, truth is the first victim. Disinformation spreads false narratives – and war hysterias.
Map showing Russian troops’ intervention Source: iNews
Pandesal Forum, February 25, 2022
Social MEdia: The battle ground for the May 9 Election?
Pandesal Forum, January 25, 2022
Pandesal Forum w/ Prof Bobby Tuazon
5 YEARS OF DUTERTE: A Summing Up
Where do we go from here?
PART 2: CENPEG's 13th State of the Presidency 2021 (post-SONA)
Time: Jul 27, 2021 03:00 PM Quezon City
Speakers: Atty. Krissy Conti (Public Interest Law Center & National Union of People's Lawyers), on Human Rights and Anti-Terrorism; Journalist Inday Espina-Varona (former president, National Union of Journalists of the Philippines), on The State of the Media under Duterte; and Prof. Roland G. Simbulan (CenPEG vice-chair and former Faculty Regent, UP) on Duterte's foreign policy
PART 1: 13th State of the Presidency(SOP)
Philippine Anti-Terrorism Law: Critical Reflections
Posted by CenPEG
03 April 2021
Lamchek, Colmenares and Temprosa
Human rights, while being recognized, is not comprehensively underscored in the global discourse. Firmly distinguished from non-state sponsored terrorism, state violence is always justified in the name of state security.
Watch/Join CenPEG's virtual forum
on March 20, 2021, 3-5p.m.
“International Counterterrorism Law and the Challenge to the Revised Philippine Anti-Terrorism Law: Critical Reflections”
A Sense of Nationhood and Philippine Sovereignty
CenPEG.org, 06 October 2020
The book, A Sense of Nationhood: The Bobby Tañada Reader, was launched in a webinar on Oct. 1, 2020. The launching of the book, the latest published by the Center for People Empowerment in Governance (CenPEG), highlighted a virtual forum on Philippine national sovereignty.
CREATIVE BRUSHES TO FIGHT PANDEMIC
Kurit Aki child artists hold workshop on Sept. 26
Paint brushes and acrylic paint were the media used by children as they showed their talents in visualizing their thoughts on the Covid-19 pandemic and how they should respond. Wearing face masks and face shields while maintaining physical distancing, 100 children from 10 teams participated in the Kurit Aki virtual workshop for 3 hours held on Sept. 26, 2020.
KURIT AKI DRY RUN by remote learning
September 16, 2020
The Kurit Aki project team held a dry run of its coming workshop on Sept. 16, 2020 from 9 a.m. – 12 noon using Zoom remote teaching. Teams of Kurit Aki children from 13 barangays in the towns of Canaman, Naga, Pasacao, Bula, Ocampo, Tigaon, and Minalabac participated.
Duterte’s termination of the VFA: New strategic moves?
“Facts show that, under the right conditions, China is capable of economic or territorial concessions in exchange for greater security. The case of the protracted negotiations over the Sino-Russia border and the latest trade war deal with the US are good examples.”
CenPEG.org
March 5, 2020
Eric Baculinao in Beijing
> Duterte’s termination of the VFA: New strategic moves?
2 CenPEG Fellows receive distinguished awards this year
CenPEG.org
Sept. 30, 2019
(Left)Boni Ilagan: Gawad Plaridel 2019; (Right)Rivera: UPAA awardee for democratization and governance
Better Active Today than Radioactive Tomorrow: Lessons from the Anti-BNPP Struggle in the Philippines
Roland G. Simbulan
Simbulan delivers his plenary paper at Taiwan No Nukes conference
3 Years of Authoritarian Rule under Duterte: An Alternative Perspective
CenPEG’s 11th State of the Presidency (SOP)
CenPEG News
July 26, 2019
(L-R) Nelson Celis, Temario C. Rivera, Joseph Anthony Lim (holding mike), and moderator Hector Barrios. CenPEG photo
Journalist killings, harassments, and intimidation in the guise of libel cases marked the state of the Philippine press in the first three years of the Duterte presidency.
Recto Bank fishing incident tackled at Saturday press forum
CenPEG June 18, 2019
The June 9 fishing incident at the Recto Bank in South China involving a Filipino fishing boat and a Chinese vessel was the centerpiece issue during the Saturday press forum at Annabel’s, Quezon City.
The Continuing Vulnerabilities of the Comelec-Smartmatic Automated Election System
PRESS CONFERENCE
May 8, 2019, 10 a.m. – 12 noon Consunji Room, 2nd Flr., Ang Bahay ng Alumni Magsaysay Avenue, UP Diliman, Quezon City
International conference on China’s ties with neighboring countries hosted by Jinan U
CenPEG.org
Posted Jan. 30, 2019
Two Fellows from the Center for People Empowerment in Governance (CenPEG) recently were session speakers at the international symposium on “China and its Neighboring Countries: Cooperation, Win-win and Sharing,” hosted by the Jinan University’s School of International Studies and Academy of Overseas Chinese Studies in Guangzhou, China.
CenPEG launches 15th book
Probing Duterte’s Foreign Policy in the New Regional Order
Commentary
A true national emergency bill
Bobby M. Tuazon - @inquirerdotnet
Philippine Daily Inquirer / May 09, 2020
Posted by CenPEG
In the last two years of President Duterte, policymaking should pivot to a reform track. Such policy shift should consider enhancing the country’s public health care system and nurturing health professionals—a priority long ignored by politics-ridden lawmaking.
Photo from foreignpolicy.com
- When politicians rule the public discourse
- A policy independent of Philippine sovereignty and integrity
- Rethinking democratization in the Philippines
- Obama’s Gift to Putin
