High Stakes National Elections, Deepening Fault Lines in Foreign Relations in the Philippines
CenPEG Political Briefer
April 2025


Introduction

April 2025 was a pivotal month for the Philippines. With the May 12 midterm elections just around the corner, electoral preparations kicked into overdrive. But beneath the surface of campaign slogans and political rallies, serious concerns that may undermine the fragile democratic exercise have emerged: widespread vote-buying, the continued stranglehold of political dynasties, and the massive use of digital disinformation in electoral campaigns.
Political endorsements, meanwhile, reveal shifting alliances that could possibly influence the result of the voting. Election campaigning and grandstanding have extended to the halls of the Senate.  There, open hostility between the two rival political factions – Dutertes and Marcoses – have played out in full public view. After Vice President Sara Duterte’s impeachment led by the President’s allies came Sen. Imee Marcos – apparently at odds with her presidential family – and her Senate investigations into the administration’s apparent complicity with the International Criminal Court (ICC) in the arrest of former President Rodrigo Duterte and detention in The Netherlands for crimes against humanity. Meanwhile, President Marcos Jr. watched his public support crumble while Vice President Sara Duterte's popularity surged—a development that has Manila's political elite whispering about possible realignments ahead of the 2028 presidential race.

The economic situation, meanwhile, continues to be dire among the majority of Filipinos. While the Marcos Jr. administration continues to tout macroeconomic growth, income inequality, job informality, and rising hunger rates persist and even worsen. The recent Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey indicates a consistent upward trend in self-rated poverty among Filipino families over the past four months. Starting at 50 percent in January, this metric rose steadily to 51 percent in February, 52 percent in March, and reached 55 percent in April. Conducted from April 11-15, the survey estimates 15.5 million families consider themselves poor, a notable increase from the 14.4 million reported in the previous month.
In foreign affairs, tensions in the South China Sea remain a critical flashpoint. Maritime incidents involving Philippine and Chinese vessels, as well as reports of online influence operations, have raised alarm. Nonetheless, recent progress in ASEAN-China negotiations on a Code of Conduct offers a much-needed pathway toward diplomatic resolution. The Philippines’ growing security relationship with the United States—underscored by this month’s Balikatan military exercises—brings both strategic benefits and geopolitical risks, particularly in the context of intensifying U.S.-China competition.

National Politics

Electoral Momentum and Democratic Tensions

The local campaign season kicked off in late March, lunging the country into a frenzy of political activity. The Commission on Elections (Comelec) now faces the thankless task of coordinating an election for more than 68 million registered voters. Their door-to-door distribution of voter information sheets initially raised eyebrows. Comelec Chair George Garcia had to publicly reassure voters that this was a necessary part of electoral preparations.

Fully automated elections will continue as planned, despite continued criticisms of lack of transparency with voting and counting processes under the new contractor, the South Korean firm Miru Systems. The said firm has also come under fire from election watchdog groups because of its questionable record in elections of countries such as Argentina, Democratic Republic of Congo and Iraq. Meanwhile, Comelec officials have said that they are hard at work ensuring the cybersecurity of its automated voting and counting systems. Comelec recently reported blocking over 75,000 hacking attempts targeting the overseas voting system.

Some threats, though, are decidedly analog. The Department of the Interior and Local Government (DILG) has recorded more than 158 vote-buying complaints—a figure that likely represents just the tip of the iceberg. Commissioner Maceda described a "novel" form of vote-buying in today’s campaigning: the exploitation of government social assistance programs to indirectly influence voter behavior. These new forms of electoral fraud have made it increasingly difficult to distinguish between genuine public service and cynical political patronage, particularly in impoverished regions.

Interestingly, Comelec has also shown some willingness to enforce campaign ethics. In Pasig City, it has demanded that a congressional candidate explain why he should not be disqualified over his sexist and misogynist remarks about single mothers. In Maguindanao del Norte, authorities placed Datu Odin Sinsuat under Comelec control due to security concerns, while in the BARMM region, election officers now require armed escorts following several alarming incidents.

Shifting Allegiances, Internal Rifts

The midterm elections have become a battlefield for future political configurations. Senator Bong Go—a longtime Duterte ally—continues to dominate senatorial surveys with a commanding 61.9 percent voter preference according to the latest Pulse Asia poll. Another Duterte diehard ally, Senator Ronald “Bato” Dela Rosa, has also consistently ranked high in the said surveys. But the administration's Alyansa Para sa Bagong Pilipinas coalition continues to be on track to win the majority of Senate seats, which would further consolidate executive influence over the legislature.

Vice President Sara Duterte, meanwhile, publicly backed Senator Imee Marcos in a campaign ad titled "ITIM" (Inday Trusts Imee Marcos), while criticizing the government's rice subsidy program as possible electioneering. This dual approach—supporting key allies while asserting independence—suggests that the Presidential sister is engaging in strategic positioning for future elections.

Within the opposition flank, many were surprised with former Vice President Leni Robredo's endorsement of administration candidates Manny Pacquiao and Benhur Abalos. This pragmatic shift transcends traditional opposition boundaries and signals a possible realignment of political forces—that is, a possible alliance of the so-called Yellow or Pink forces (Liberal Party opposition) with the ruling Marcos Jr. coalition. This, of course, has disappointed a number of Robredo’s supporters, who continue to see her as the leading opposition figure and liberal democrat in the tradition of the anti-Marcos dictatorship mainstream opposition.
The Senate also saw a dramatic clash erupted between Senate President Chiz Escudero and Senator Imee Marcos over the contempt detention of Special Envoy Markus Lacanilao during hearings related to the ICC's arrest of former President Duterte. These divisions point to a Senate increasingly fractured by personal rivalries rather than substantive policy disagreements. In the local front, key battleground cities saw notable candidacies generate their own drama. In Manila, mayoralty candidates Honey Lacuna, Sam Verzosa and Isko Moreno all stand accused of vote-buying. In Pasig City, Mayor Vico Sotto faced controversy after allegations emerged that a person with disability was coerced into making negative statements against him.

Dynasties, disinformation, digital risks

Political dynasties continue their vice grip on local politics. These family enterprises now govern 113 of the country's 149 cities—severely constraining political inclusivity and tending to concentrate wealth and power in fewer hands.

The party-list system, originally designed to give marginalized sectors a voice in the House of Representatives, has been largely captured by entrenched interests. Election watchdog Kontra Daya reports that over half of party-list groups running don't actually represent marginalized sectors—a damning indictment of a system meant to broaden representation.
Social media, meanwhile, has become a hotly-contested electoral battleground. Research conducted by Reuters indicated that approximately one-third of accounts discussing Duterte's ICC case on platform X (formerly Twitter) are fake, suggesting a coordinated disinformation campaign. These operations pose a grave threat to democratic discourse by distorting public opinion and eroding institutional trust.

Even officials in the executive branch of government have engaged in speculations of electoral fraud, specifically foreign interference in the elections. National Security Council officials have claimed that China is attempting to influence electoral outcomes—allegations that Chinese officials promptly denied. These officials have accused a Chinese company, InfinitUs Marketing, of allegedly discrediting the Philippine government and anti-China personalities.

The 2025 local and midterm elections in the Philippines have exposed deepening tensions in the country's democratic processes. While Comelec pushes forward with fully automated elections despite transparency issues, the poll body also faces mounting analog threats—from rampant vote-buying complaints to the misuse of state aid for electoral gain to rampant vilification and red-tagging targeting the progressive opposition.

National Economy

Persistent inequality despite claims of growth

The Marcos Jr. administration continues to tout Philippine economy growth across all 18 regions. It claims that Central Visayas leads the pack at 7.3 percent, followed by Caraga (6.9 percent) and Central Luzon (6.5 percent). The national GDP growth rate stands at 5.7 percent. In February 2025, employment supposedly reached 96.2 percent, with 49.15 million people employed. This is higher than both February 2024 and January 2025 numbers.
But these headline figures mask profound structural challenges that affect the majority of Filipinos. Research group IBON estimates that a staggering 42 percent of total employed workers operate in the informal sector, suggesting that many jobs are low-paying, precarious, and lacking basic benefits. This widespread informality not only reduces tax revenue but also weakens worker protections and social safety nets.

Real wages have stagnated relative to inflation. The average daily minimum wage of ₱469 has fallen dramatically short of the ₱1,227 needed to cover a family's basic daily needs. This gap between earnings and expenses has contributed to rising hunger rates, which now affect 27.2 percent of Filipino families—the highest since September 2020 at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the latest Social Weather Station (SWS) survey, more than half of Filipino families (52 percent) identify themselves as poor. This stark duality—impressive economic statistics alongside widespread hardship—demands a fundamental reconsideration of how the Philippine government measures and distributes prosperity.

The SWS survey also revealed that 38 percent of Filipinos believe their quality of life has remained unchanged compared to last year, while 31 percent reported improvement and 30 percent said it had worsened. This results in what economists term a "high" net gainers score of +1—a figure that hardly reflects broad-based prosperity.

Policy interventions, fiscal outlook

The government has continued to tout its social protection programs, most notably the Walang Gutom food subsidy program. The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) recently approved a midline survey to assess the program's impact on hunger mitigation and food security. Such programs require careful scaling and monitoring to prevent political exploitation, especially during an election cycle.

The ₱20/kg rice program has emerged as a flashpoint in political debates. Critics, including Vice President Sara Duterte, have labeled it as electioneering, while supporters defend it as a necessary intervention against food insecurity. Comelec's conditional exemption of the program from the election spending ban reflects the delicate balance between addressing social welfare needs and maintaining electoral fairness.

National debt continues its upward trajectory, reaching ₱16.63 trillion in February 2025—an increase of ₱319.26 billion (1.96 percent) from January and ₱1.45 trillion (9.57 percent) year-over-year. While the administration claims that debt remains within manageable parameters, rising global interest rates and tariff-related revenue risks could constrain future fiscal flexibility.

The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) projects that Philippine economic growth may fall below six percent this year, partly due to potential impacts from U.S. tariffs. President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" announcement of a 17 percent tax on Filipino goods sent shockwaves through export-oriented sectors, though he later announced a 90-day pause on these sweeping tariffs. Economists warn that such measures could significantly impact the country's electronics and agricultural exports.

A forum by the Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) highlighted how unpaid housework continues to limit women's economic opportunities, exacerbating broader economic challenges. In another sobering assessment, PIDS researchers warned that school bullying could cost the economy up to ₱20 billion annually in GDP losses—a reminder that social problems often carry significant economic consequences.

Despite upbeat claims from the Marcos Jr. administration about robust national growth and high employment rates, the Philippine economy remains deeply marked by inequality, informality, and precarity. While GDP grew by 5.7 percent, nearly half of workers remain in the informal sector, and real wages fall far below what families need for daily survival. Hunger and poverty rates have surged, and more than half of Filipinos still consider themselves poor. Social protection efforts reflect both genuine need and political maneuvering, particularly during an election cycle. Meanwhile, the country's growing debt burden and external threats—such as potential U.S. tariffs—further cloud the fiscal outlook.

Philippine Foreign Affairs

Navigating Maritime Tensions with Diplomacy
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The South China Sea remains a persistent flashpoint in Philippine foreign policy. April saw new maritime incidents, including a dangerous near-collision between Chinese and Philippine vessels near Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal. The Philippine Coast Guard reported that a Chinese coast guard vessel blocked and nearly collided with the BRP Cabra patrol ship—just one of many confrontations in recent months.

The Armed Forces of the Philippines claimed it monitored 40 Chinese navy and coast guard ships in the South China Sea during March. Chinese vessels, meanwhile, have maintained a presence in the region for 1,939 ship days in 2024, already exceeding last year's record. The AFP also said they have confirmed sightings of the Chinese aircraft carrier Shandong near Philippine waters, along with an electronic surveillance ship off northern Luzon.

China, for its part, has accused the Philippines of provocations, particularly in cooperation with U.S. and Japanese forces, while the Philippines maintains its claim to sovereign right to patrol within its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). The Philippine Navy challenged Chinese claims that a Philippine frigate "illegally intruded" in Scarborough Shoal, asserting its authority to patrol South China Sea.

Despite these tensions, diplomatic channels remain open. Manila recently hosted three days of ASEAN-China negotiations on a Code of Conduct for the South China Sea, with all parties reaffirming their commitment to a 2026 timeline. Malaysia has expressed optimism about progress, suggesting that regional consensus remains possible. Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo noted that all parties are "politically committed" to this timeline despite ongoing challenges.

The nomenclature debate flared up again when Google Maps began displaying the label "West Philippine Sea" where it previously showed "South China Sea," prompting the Chinese Embassy to lodge "solemn representations." The Chinese Foreign Ministry maintains that the South China Sea remains the "widely recognized and commonly used geographical name by the international community." While such labels reflect national perspectives, they also underscore the need for respectful communication in addressing contentious issues.

Navigating U.S. security ties

The annual Balikatan military exercises have expanded significantly, now involving over 17,000 personnel and including the deployment of U.S. missile systems to northern Luzon. Approximately 14,000 American and Filipino soldiers have been participating in these exercises from April 21 to May 9, with additional involvement from Australia and Japan.
The United States has deployed its Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System (NMESIS) for these exercises and approved a potential $120 million helicopter deal with the Philippines. A bipartisan U.S. Congressional Delegation recently visited Manila, reaffirming support for the Philippines-U.S. alliance despite supposed declarations of a Trump administration inward shift toward protectionism.

While these developments demonstrate growing military cooperation, they also raise regional security concerns—particularly given the proximity of some exercises to Taiwan. The deployment of anti-ship missile systems to Batanes, just 150 kilometers from Taiwan, has sparked debates about potential provocations and regional stability.

The Philippine and U.S. governments, of course, claim that these military collaborations aim to bolster deterrence. Yet from a diplomatic perspective, they risk drawing the Philippines deeper into great power competition between the United States and China. A balanced approach—one that defends national sovereignty, asserts independent foreign policy and enhances security capabilities without closing the door to regional diplomacy—remains essential for Philippine interests.

International justice, bilateral relations

Former President Rodrigo Duterte's arrest and detention by the International Criminal Court (ICC) on allegations of crimes against humanity related to his administration's brutal drug war has become a focal point of international attention. His daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte, visited him in The Hague, relaying his message that "everything I did, I did for my country."

Swiss Ambassador Nicolas Brühl affirmed Switzerland's support for the ICC as an "important tool" in enforcing international law. The Dutertes have actively galvanized its supporters—particularly overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) in different parts of the world—to pressure the ICC and the Philippine government to “bring him home”, or, at the very least, release the former president from detention. The ICC has so far refused to relent, asserting the legality of the arrest in international law. While both sides are currently at work building their respective cases in time for the start of the trial in September, the Duterte clique has so far successfully managed to rouse mass support for the ex-president. This, of course, has massive implications in the Philippine midterm elections, as well as the country’s alignment in the increasing competition between the great powers, U.S. and China.

Relations with China, meanwhile, faced additional strain after Beijing reported the arrest of three Filipino nationals on espionage charges. The Department of Foreign Affairs confirmed it is "providing all necessary assistance, including appropriate legal support" to the detained Filipinos. Philippine officials have disputed these accusations, suggesting they might be retaliatory in nature. Together with the Philippine NSA’s own accusation of possible Chinese interference in elections, these claims from both sides only underscores the more urgent need for diplomatic solutions to the South China Sea dispute.

Beyond its immediate neighbors, the Philippines has also engaged in bilateral consultations with Angola, strengthened agricultural cooperation with Australia, and reinforced its commitment to upholding children's rights at the United Nations, where it has been invited to serve as "a model for best practices."

Pope Francis’ death and its implications for the Philippine Catholic Church

The death of Pope Francis on April 21, 2025, marked the end of a transformative era for the Roman Catholic Church. As the first Latin American and Jesuit pope, Francis' 12-year papacy was characterized by a commitment to inclusivity, social justice, and institutional reform. His progressive stances offer important lessons for the Philippines, where Catholicism deeply influences societal norms and policy debates.

Pope Francis emphasized compassion over condemnation in his approach to controversial issues. He advocated for a more understanding attitude toward the LGBTQ+ community, famously asking, "Who am I to judge?" This perspective challenges the often conservative views particularly prevalent in the Philippine Church, where LGBTQ+ individuals continue to be largely discriminated against in the workplace, in cultural spaces and even in government processes.

Francis also controversially opened discussions on allowing divorced and remarried Catholics to receive communion. This, of course, is a significant departure from traditional doctrine. These discussions continue to be muted in the Philippines, which is famously the only country in the world (aside from the Vatican) without a divorce law.

The pope, meanwhile, also revisited the Church's stance on clerical celibacy, suggesting it could be reconsidered, especially in regions facing priest shortages. It is hoped that such reconsideration also be done in the Philippines, which is grappling with a declining number of clergy.

On the diplomatic and international front, countries such as China have credited Pope Francis for the warming of relations between Beijing and Vatican. Human rights advocates have also commended Francis for his firm condemnation of the genocide in Gaza by the Israeli government. This, of course, has not endeared the leader of the Catholic Church to the settler colonial government of Israel and its Zionist supporters in the West, including the United States.

As the Church prepares for the upcoming conclave to elect Pope Francis’ successor, discussions often include Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, known for his pastoral approach and alignment with Francis' vision. Tagle's potential election would mark a historic moment for the Asian Catholic community and possibly ensure continuity of progressive reforms. Meanwhile, the conservative section of the Church, particularly those in North America, have put pressure on the cardinals to elect a more traditionalist pope. Interestingly, these conservatives have also used social media—the domain of disinformation agents—as the space to denigrate supposed progressive papabiles like Tagle and others.

The Philippines in April 2025: Gearing for contentious elections, hoping for better foreign relations

April 2025 revealed a Philippines once again the deep vulnerabilities of its democratic processes, constrained as it is by dynastic politics, disinformation, corruption and political intramurals. Economic growth continues to be almost exclusively enjoyed by an elite few. Inclusive prosperity remains frustratingly elusive for the great majority of ordinary Filipinos.
Foreign policy, shaped by strategic necessities and historical alliances, must now navigate an increasingly complex multipolar world. The South China Sea dispute, despite the provocations, continues to serve as a critical space for potential collaboration rather than confrontation. All parties, especially China and the Philippines, are urged to pursue negotiations within ASEAN frameworks or within the bounds of international law, practicing mutual restraint and sustained diplomacy to avoid dangerous escalation.

The upcoming May elections will be a crucial test for Philippine democracy—determining not just who holds power, but how that power is exercised and for whose benefit. As the nation approaches this critical juncture, its future trajectory will depend on finding the delicate balance between democratic resilience, economic inclusion, and strategic multilateralism and independence in an increasingly volatile global environment.

Amid escalating maritime tensions in the South China Sea, there continues to be a need for the Philippines to pursue a precarious balance between asserting sovereignty and maintaining open diplomatic channels, particularly through ongoing ASEAN-China Code of Conduct talks. Confrontations with Chinese vessels and increased U.S.-Philippine military cooperation—including expanded Balikatan exercises—have heightened regional security anxieties, especially near Taiwan. This has further exposed the country to the risks of great power rivalry. Meanwhile, Duterte’s arrest by the ICC and China’s detention of three Filipinos on espionage charges added strain to international relations, with both issues intersecting with electoral politics and disinformation campaigns. Meanwhile, the passing of Pope Francis further stirred national reflection, as his progressive legacy—on LGBTQ+ inclusion, clerical celibacy, divorce and on capitalism—contrasted with the conservatism of the local Church, reigniting debates around social and religious reform. As the country approaches its midterm elections, it must navigate overlapping pressures: defending democracy, resisting disinformation, sustaining inclusive diplomacy, and preserving sovereignty amid a shifting geopolitical landscape.