ISSUE ANALYSIS No.01
January 22, 2008

Vying for the presidency in 2010

Over the past two months, there has been much noise about the next presidential race which is still two-and-a-half-years away. This is unfortunate not only because it is too early to talk about it but also because once again it is narrowing down the choice of the president into a popularity contest and a battle of personalities.

Not much attention is being paid on the fact that over the past several years, the office of the presidency has been subverted brazenly: It has been used to dispense political favors, to commit monumental corruption, and to attack the democratic rights of the people. The frailties of the presidency are taking place alongside the continued domination of the legislature by political dynasties while the judicial system is crippled by the breakdown of law and order.

All these have led more and more quarters and an increasing number of disconcerted Filipinos to believe that only by replacing the country’s dysfunctional political institutions with an alternative form of governance can the current political crisis be meaningfully addressed. From this perspective have emerged in the past two years two differing options: the putting up of a civilian-led national transitional council and a transition junta borne out of the withdrawal of support to the presidency by a military faction.

Glossed over in the frenzy to see who the leading presidentiables are is what political agenda they are bringing into this race for power, what they stand for with regard to issues most urgent to the people, and who the probable major beneficiaries are from their candidacies. The electorate deserves no less than the whole truth about these questions.

Early birds

Floated as the early birds in the 2010 presidential race are at least seven senators: Manuel B. Villar (Senate president), Manuel Araneta “Mar” Roxas, Loren Legarda, Panfilo Lacson, Richard Gordon, Jinggoy Estrada, and Chiz Escudero. The others are Vice President Noli de Castro, Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay, Quezon City Mayor Feliciano “Sonny” Belmonte, and MMDA chair Bayani Fernando. Not to be counted out is deposed President Joseph Estrada himself.

Some of the aspirants aim to increase their marketability as presidential contenders in order to increase their chances as vice presidential nominees or as senatoriables. Except for Belmonte and Fernando, all are identified with the anti-Arroyo opposition camp.

So far those who have strongly indicated their intention to run are Villar, Roxas, and Lacson. Villar of the Nacionalista Party, controls the multi-billion dollar Vista Land & Lifescapes, Inc., and is 24th in Forbes Asia’s list of 40 richest Filipinos. Roxas, president of the Liberal Party, is heir to the vast Araneta Cubao property. Known to be pro-globalization, Roxas supports the Japan-Philippine Economic Partnership Agreement (JPEPA), the current bane of labor, peasant, and small businessmen’s groups.

Lacson, presently non-affiliated, is believed to be popular among the Filipino-Chinese business community but carries the stigma of having lost his presidential bid in 2004.

A staunch Arroyo ally, De Castro has increased his media visibility. It remains unclear whether the Lopez clan which owns the giant ABS-CBN TV-radio network where De Castro had a high-paying job as anchorperson, would back his candidacy as they did in 2004. Legarda, who claims being cheated by De Castro in the 2004 vice-presidential contest, has consistently topped previous senatorial polls and is leading current surveys on the presidency. She is from the Nationalist Citizens’ Party (NCP) which is headed by magnate and known kingmaker Eduardo “Danding” Cojuangco.

United opposition

Binay is closely associated with two former presidents, Corazon C. Aquino and Joseph E. Estrada. The Makati mayor, who has supported Estrada through thick and thin and played a key role in efforts to unite the traditional opposition for the May 2004 elections, is a battle-scarred local politician but running for national office is an entirely different game.

Many of the opposition leaders had supported the call for the removal of Gloria M. Arroyo as well as previous impeachment complaints filed against her. That is now out of the question as they set their sights on the presidency.

This vacillation is quite understandable because the presidential aspirants are in the main inured with the traditional politics where patronage, money, and resources decide the outcome of elections. Their political career is dictated by narrow elite interests and their claim to serving public interest is just for soliciting votes. Thus, at this early stage they are jockeying for support by powerful patrons, economic oligarchs, local dynasties, vote-for-sale religious sects, generals, and even possibly big-time crime syndicates who have high stakes in the outcome of the elections. Who knows but a couple of them are secretly coveting for the blessings of Arroyo even if some commentators say that it would be a kiss of death.

Expect shifting coalitions, realignments, and party-switching to take place in the next several months. Some of the presidentiables currently aligned with the opposition will eventually coalesce with Arroyo’s party, Kampi, guaranteed by the use of government resources for the elections and possibly even by the secret endorsement of some Comelec officials.

And yet as the heat of the presidential derby is building up, the electoral machinery that is charged with ensuring fair elections remains clouded with suspicion, low credibility and incompetence. Allowing the Comelec as a superbody to supervise the 2010 elections without all allegations of complicity in previously rigged elections unresolved while major reforms being sought are unheeded will not make the next elections credible.

Greatly weakened

Meanwhile, the presidency, as a key political institution, has been greatly weakened not only by abuse of power and corruption but more so by growing public perceptions that whoever occupies it will not turn things for the better. Proof of it is that there have been two successful people’s revolts that toppled two presidents – Ferdinand E. Marcos in 1986, and Estrada in 2001. A third president, Arroyo, has faced three impeachments in three years and a persistent clamor for her removal.

Still the presidency remains pivotal in intra-elite rivalry and is preserved as a key pillar of the political infrastructure of elite politics. Its executive powers define priority legislation, decide the country’s economic tracks, foreign relations, and national security policies. In recent years, the people have seen how these powers led to the worsening of poverty, landlessness and unemployment, unprecedented corruption, attacks on human rights, and the deepening of armed intervention by the world’s superpower in the guise of counter-terrorism.

While the country toils in the search for a government that really serves the people’s collective interests, the people can look at the next presidential race as a process of enhancing their own empowerment. With the presidential acrobats rehearsing for the next presidential circus, the people can define the contours of the next election by being more assertive in setting the political and economic agenda upon which the aspirants should let known where they stand. Right now, there is a deafening silence among the aspirants as regards the renewed demand for genuine agrarian reform and minimum wage increase, among others.

The people’s electoral arms such as the Party-list system can be strengthened to make it more viable for legislative representation even as citizens’ pollwatch groups should likewise be preparing toward frustrating and weakening the various machineries of election manipulation. Moves to abolish the system of political dynasties can be brought outside Congress and into the public arena as part of the movement for people-first or new politics.